| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 9Developing evidence | 100.0% (9/9) | 44.4% (4/9) | -2.7% | -1.8% | -7.0% |
| 20D | 9Developing evidence | 100.0% (9/9) | 0.0% (0/9) | -6.3% | -6.5% | -11.5% |
| 60D | 6Developing evidence | 100.0% (6/6) | 0.0% (0/6) | -24.2% | -26.5% | -42.0% |
| 120D | 6Developing evidence | 100.0% (6/6) | 0.0% (0/6) | -42.2% | -41.1% | -53.2% |
COMPANY RESEARCH
Amadeus Fire AG
AAD.DE · Germany · Industrials · Staffing & Employment Services
INSIDER SIGNAL
Insider activity score：67.9 / 100
This is a ranking under the current European screening rules—not a probability of gain, return forecast, or buy recommendation.
Insider vs stock price
No daily prices and volumes have been captured for this stock yet.
Insider timeline
The current window holds no filing with a trade date.
Why this score? · Model details
Priority = 100 × Σ(fixed weight × 0–1 rule-based input)
| Factor | Weight | This company input | Point contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15-day buyer breadth (count) | 35% | 0.850 | 29.8 |
| Qualified-buy size | 25% | 0.776 | 19.4 |
| Role informativeness (inverted) | 20% | 0.350 | 7.0 |
| Recency | 10% | 0.177 | 1.8 |
| Buy/sell conviction | 10% | 1.000 | 10.0 |
This is a heuristic ordering under the current rules, not a calibrated return forecast. It explains why candidates rank differently; the public-filing evidence and data limits are shown below.
BULL VS BEAR
Two readings of this buying
The same filings, read two ways. Each line is a fact stored for this company with the number behind it, and appears only when that number crosses a fixed threshold. Neither side is a forecast and no winner is declared.
All bull and bear lists, and what followed each line in the past →
Where the evidence comes from
The two kinds of evidence disagree: the purchases themselves carry bull lines (large purchases), while share price and trading argue against (price down over six months, price trails its sector); company results argue against (loss-making). No data is held for: company actions.
- The insider purchases themselvesBulllarge purchases2 checked, under the threshold
- Share price and tradingBearprice down over six months, price trails its sector
- Short sellers1 checked, under the threshold
- Company resultsBearloss-making1 missing
- Company actions1 missing
Bull case · the buying is informative
- Net purchases of €159k equal 0.18% of the company's market value (€90.1M): large for the size of the business.
Bear case · discount it
- Company resultsThe company is loss-making on the latest captured figures: profit margin −1.9%, return on equity −1.6%.
- Share price and tradingThe share price is down 31% over six months (three months −21%, one month −19%) and stands 71% below its 52-week high. Insiders have bought into a fall the market has not reversed.Record (nearest stored case: price 20% or more below its prior 52-week high): after 11,077 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −3.2%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−2.6%).
- Share price and tradingOver three months the share price changed −21% and the median of 462 Industrials companies changed −0.32%: 21 points behind. The market has marked this company down against its own sector.
Evidence still missing
- Only one reading of profitability is held (profit margin −1.9%). Whether earnings and cash flow are rising or falling needs the last two reports side by side.
- The next scheduled results are on 2026-11-02. They are the first hard test of either reading.
Checked and under the threshold: 3
- BearNo insider sale is recorded in the same 180 days.
- EitherThe latest purchase is 25 days old. Bull up to 14 days, bear from 90.
- BearThe register of Bundesanzeiger shows no published net short position in this company. Positions under 0.5% are never published, so this does not show that nobody is short.
Both columns arrange stored facts only. They do not change the insider score or the ranking and are not investment advice.
Signal history
67.9 / 100
Latest recorded score
↓ -7.0 ptssince the first recorded snapshot on 2026-09-24; 24 calendar days observed
- Recorded snapshots
- 20
- First snapshot
- 2026-09-24
There is not yet a 30-calendar-day comparison; earlier scores are not reconstructed. These are raw signal scores saved when each full scoring run completed. They describe changes in research ranking, not price performance or returns.
Why did it change?
Less than 30 days of comparable history is available, so factor movement is not yet decomposed.
Signal score history
Fixed 0–100 scale; dates are spaced by calendar time.
Recent recorded points
- 74.9
- 71.5
- 70.0
- 68.7
- 67.9
View all recorded scores
| Snapshot date | Signal score |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | 74.9 |
| 2026-09-25 | 74.3 |
| 2026-09-28 | 72.8 |
| 2026-09-29 | 72.3 |
| 2026-09-30 | 71.9 |
| 2026-10-01 | 71.5 |
| 2026-10-02 | 71.2 |
| 2026-10-03 | 71.2 |
| 2026-10-04 | 71.2 |
| 2026-10-05 | 70.2 |
| 2026-10-06 | 70.0 |
| 2026-10-07 | 69.7 |
| 2026-10-08 | 69.5 |
| 2026-10-09 | 69.2 |
| 2026-10-12 | 68.7 |
| 2026-10-13 | 68.5 |
| 2026-10-14 | 68.3 |
| 2026-10-15 | 68.2 |
| 2026-10-16 | 68.1 |
| 2026-10-18 | 67.9 |
Why there is no buy signal
No qualifying open-market purchase disclosure is available in the current research window. This is not a sell signal.
The underlying disclosures remain available below for audit.
Sector context
- Buying breadth
- 7.5% (79 / 1,047 issuers)
- Sector rank
- #8 / 12
- 7D breadth change
- -0.3 pp · vs 2026-10-12 (6d)
- 30D breadth change
- History building
This is sector-level research context. It does not affect the Insider Signal or ranking.
Insider profile outcomes
Historical performance following insider filings. The company role is translated below each name while preserving the original title.
- Excess return = stock return − DAX return over the same period.
- Hit rate = completed events with positive excess return ÷ total completed events.
- Price coverage = valid point-in-time prices ÷ events mature enough for that period.
- Returns start on the first shared trading session on or after publication.
- Small-sample rule: n<5 is shown for transparency and is not scored.
Events are disclosure-level observations; related disclosures published on the same date may share a return path and may not be statistically independent. This research enrichment does not affect the insider score or ranking.
| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 4Small sample | 100.0% (4/4) | 0.0% (0/4) | -2.7% | -2.9% | -3.6% |
| 20D | 4Small sample | 100.0% (4/4) | 0.0% (0/4) | -11.0% | -10.7% | -13.5% |
| 60D | 4Small sample | 100.0% (4/4) | 0.0% (0/4) | -18.7% | -16.7% | -28.3% |
| 120D | 4Small sample | 100.0% (4/4) | 0.0% (0/4) | -48.7% | -46.0% | -53.2% |
| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 2Small sample | 100.0% (2/2) | 0.0% (0/2) | -4.9% | -4.9% | -7.6% |
| 20D | 2Small sample | 100.0% (2/2) | 0.0% (0/2) | -13.3% | -13.3% | -15.8% |
| 60D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 0.0% (0/1) | -26.9% | -26.9% | -26.9% |
| 120D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 0.0% (0/1) | -53.4% | -53.4% | -53.4% |
Market context
PRICE PERFORMANCE
VOLATILITY & LIQUIDITY
- Volatility
- 44.5%
- Beta
- 0.92
- Avg daily volume
- €199,593.9
VALUATION
- Market cap
- €90.1M
- P/E
- —
FUNDAMENTALS
- Profit margin
- -1.9%
- ROE
- -1.6%
- Industry
- Staffing & Employment Services
Prices to 29 Sep 2026: OpenBB/yfinance. From OpenBB/yfinance, captured 29 Sep 2026: Market cap, Profit margin, ROE, Beta, Industry. It does not affect the insider score or rank.
Disclosed net short positions
The Bundesanzeiger register, read 18 Oct 2026, publishes no net short position of 0.5% or more in this issuer. Positions below 0.5% are never published, so this is not evidence that nobody is short.
Short-position disclosures are external context; they do not affect the insider score, ranking, or filing eligibility.
Insiders' buying price vs the latest close
No qualifying purchase was filed in this period.
Buying size vs market trading
No daily prices and volumes have been captured for this stock yet.
Latest news
No news has been captured for this company.
Regulatory filings
The filing records held for this company carry no link to the original notice.
Filing evidence
These are underlying national-feed records from the 365-day window ending on the saved ranking snapshot. The score uses only the latest 180 days; older qualifying equity purchases remain visible for audit but do not enter the current score. The original filer, role, transaction classification, instrument, price, volume, value and source fields are retained. The first three rows are shown; remaining records can be unfolded for audit. Other transaction types are retained but excluded from the score.
Excluded transactions & classification
The underlying filing feed is unavailable in this snapshot; this is not a claim that no filings exist.
Other disclosed transactions · excluded from score
The underlying filing feed is unavailable in this snapshot; this is not a claim that no filings exist.
Snapshot & identity
- Snapshot date
- 2026-10-18
- Ticker
- AAD.DE
- ISIN
- DE0005093108
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Staffing & Employment Services