| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 17Developing evidence | 100.0% (17/17) | 29.4% (5/17) | -1.4% | -1.3% | -9.0% |
| 20D | 17Developing evidence | 100.0% (17/17) | 29.4% (5/17) | -3.4% | -1.2% | -11.4% |
| 60D | 15Developing evidence | 100.0% (15/15) | 26.7% (4/15) | -9.0% | -6.7% | -23.7% |
| 120D | 12Developing evidence | 100.0% (12/12) | 8.3% (1/12) | -21.8% | -17.3% | -31.9% |
COMPANY RESEARCH
FirstGroup plc
FGP.L · United Kingdom · Industrials · Railroads
INSIDER SIGNAL
1 insiders · 6 purchase events · €1k net purchases
Europe #1073 · United Kingdom #306
WHY THIS SIGNAL?
Score anatomy
Each bar shows the contribution to the current score; the weights and formula stay unchanged.
How many distinct insiders bought in the cluster
Purchase value relative to company size and liquidity
The seniority and relevance of participating insiders
How recently the purchases occurred
How clearly buying stands out from other activity
What is holding the score back?
- ⚠ Buyer breadth is moderate · fewer than 4 distinct filers
- ⚠ Purchase size is modest relative to the model scale
- ✓ Strong insider role · cfo involved
- ✓ Recent activity · latest purchase 2026-10-14
The role contribution uses the inverted role input of the current European model.
Buying concentration
Largest buyer:Ryan Mangold · 900 GBP
Gross qualified purchase transaction-line value:900 GBP
The headline € total is net buying for the screen; this module uses gross qualified purchase transaction-line values in the filing currency, so the amounts can differ. The current 15-day buyer-breadth input counts distinct buyers; value concentration is disclosed separately here.
This is a ranking under the current European screening rules—not a probability of gain, return forecast, or buy recommendation.
Key purchase quotes (filing currency)
| Filer | Price per unit | Trade date |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mangold | 1.975 GBP | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Ryan Mangold | 1.7015 GBP | Sep 10, 2026 |
| Ryan Mangold | 1.68994 GBP | Jun 10, 2026 |
Model details
Cluster breakdown (does not change the score)
- 15-day buyer breadth (count)
- 1 distinct reported filers
- Peak time window
- 2026-05-11 to 2026-05-11
- Current breadth input
- 0.300 (capped at 4+ buyers)
- Buyer independence
- Not yet measured; related-party fields are not cross-market comparable
What the filings show
- 🟢 Recent eligible purchase
Ryan Mangold · 150 GBP · Price 1.975 GBP · Oct 14, 2026 - 🟢 PDMR purchase
Ryan Mangold · 150 GBP · Price 1.7015 GBP · Sep 10, 2026 - 🟢 PDMR purchase
Ryan Mangold · 150 GBP · Price 1.68994 GBP · Jun 10, 2026 - 🟡 3 remaining qualified transaction line(s) across 3 disclosure(s)
- 🔴 16 other transaction line(s) are not counted as discretionary-buying evidence; 0 have zero price
Insider vs stock price
6 purchase day(s), 6 purchase line(s) in the 180-day window.
Markers sit on the closing price of the transaction day. They show when insiders traded, not the price they paid or received. "Since" compares that day's close with the last close shown; it is what happened at this company, not a forecast.
If you had followed the purchase
Each row starts on the first close on or after the day a purchase was made public, the earliest a reader could have acted, and ends on the last close shown above.
| Made public | Insiders | In this stock, now | In the median peer stock, now | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 1 | 1,116 +11.6% | 1,031 +3.1% | +85 +8.5 pts |
| 2026-06-12 | 1 | 1,080 +8.0% | 1,006 +0.6% | +75 +7.5 pts |
| 2026-07-15 | 1 | 1,036 +3.6% | 1,000 +0.0% | +36 +3.6 pts |
| 2026-08-13 | 1 | 1,015 +1.5% | 972 −2.8% | +43 +4.3 pts |
| 2026-09-14 | 1 | 1,094 +9.4% | 992 −0.8% | +102 +10.2 pts |
5 of 5 disclosure day(s) ended ahead of the median peer stock.
Close to close, before costs, taxes, dividends and currency moves. The peer is the median of the other stocks on the same exchange for which this site holds prices (454 here), not an index. This is what happened, not a forecast: across all purchases on this site the typical gap is close to zero.
Insider timeline
One insider bought, 6 times, the latest (14 Oct).
Tap an item for what it means.
●A purchase: the bigger the dot, the more was bought
Each dot is one insider's purchases on one day. The dot's area follows the amount: the largest purchase here gets the largest dot. Hold the pointer over a dot to see the date and the amount.
Blue line: this share's price, +5.1% over these six months
The closing price of each day, from 177.50 on 2026-04-21 to 186.60 on 2026-10-07. The line has no scale; read it for high and low: a dot on a low stretch was bought cheaply, a dot on a high stretch was not.
Dashed line: the typical stock on the same exchange, +2.3%
Taken from the 491 other stocks on the same exchange that this site holds prices for. Each is measured from the first day of the window, and every day the middle one is drawn. It starts where the blue line starts, so the gap between the two is the difference: this share +5.1%, the typical one +2.3%, 2.8 points ahead. It is not an index and not a comparison within one industry.
▂Grey bars: companies across Europe disclosing purchases each week
A taller bar is a week in which more companies disclosed insider purchases.
This company: insiders buying per month, last 12 months
Darker bars are inside the 180-day window above.
Who traded
| Insider | Role | Purchases | Sales | Bought | First purchase | Share price since | Earlier purchases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mangold | CFO | 6 | — | 900 GBP | 2026-05-11 | +12.7% | 15 completed, median −9.0% against peers after 60 sessions |
Why this score? · Model details
Priority = 100 × Σ(fixed weight × 0–1 rule-based input)
| Factor | Weight | This company input | Point contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15-day buyer breadth (count) | 35% | 0.300 | 10.5 |
| Qualified-buy size | 25% | 0.452 | 11.3 |
| Role informativeness (inverted) | 20% | 0.100 | 2.0 |
| Recency | 10% | 0.812 | 8.1 |
| Buy/sell conviction | 10% | 1.000 | 10.0 |
This is a heuristic ordering under the current rules, not a calibrated return forecast. It explains why candidates rank differently; the public-filing evidence and data limits are shown below.
BULL VS BEAR
Two readings of this buying
The same filings, read two ways. Each line is a fact stored for this company with the number behind it, and appears only when that number crosses a fixed threshold. Neither side is a forecast and no winner is declared.
Since 2026-10-13: new on the bear side: small purchases; no longer on the bear side: published short positions. All bull and bear lists, and what followed each line in the past →
Where the evidence comes from
- The insider purchases themselvesBearplan, dividend or pay wording, one buyer only, small purchases, buyer's past purchases trailed the benchmark3 checked, under the threshold · 1 missing
- Share price and trading2 checked, under the threshold
- Short sellers1 checked, under the threshold
- Company results2 missing
- Company actionsno data held
Bull case · the buying is informative
Every purchase line here follows a plan, a dividend or pay terms, so nothing held supports reading the buying as a decision.
Bear case · discount it
- 6 of 6 purchase lines are worded as an employee share plan, for example “Purchase of Partnership Shares under the FirstGroup SIP”. Purchases of that kind follow a schedule or an entitlement, not a decision made now.
- Only one insider bought. A single purchase can reflect that person's own finances rather than a view on the company.Record: after 4,732 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −2.7%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−3.3%).
- All purchases in the window total €1,067: a small commitment in absolute terms.
- The 15 earlier purchases by Ryan Mangold trailed FTSE 100 by a median 9.0% over the following 60 trading days.
Evidence still missing
- The company's market value is not captured, so the purchases cannot be stated as a share of the business or of its trading volume.
- No earnings, margin or cash-flow figures are captured for this company. The latest annual and interim reports are where to check whether the business is improving or deteriorating.
- The filings give the size of each trade, not what the buyer already held. Whether a purchase added 1% to a personal stake or doubled it is not known.
Checked and under the threshold: 6, 1 close to it
- BearPublished net short positions total 1.87% of the share capital. Counted for the bear side from 2%. On 2026-10-02 it was 1.76%: up 0.11 points since. close to the threshold
- Either1 insider bought in the last 180 days and 1 in the 180 days before. Bull when the number at least doubles and rises by two; bear when at least two bought before and no more buy now.
- Bear0 of 1 buyer filed as a person closely associated with a manager. Counted for the bear side from half.
- BearNo insider sale is recorded in the same 180 days.
- BearThe share price changed +6.4% over six months (three months +5.2%, one month +8.1%). Counted for the bear side from a fall of 20%.
- BearOver three months the share price changed +5.2% and the median of 462 Industrials companies changed −0.32%: ahead by 6 points. Counted for the bear side from 20 points behind.
Both columns arrange stored facts only. They do not change the insider score or the ranking and are not investment advice.
Signal history
Latest recorded score
- Recorded snapshots
- 35
- First snapshot
- 2026-08-26
Only scores captured when the scoring run completed are compared. These are raw signal scores saved when each full scoring run completed. They describe changes in research ranking, not price performance or returns.
Why did it change?
Decomposition across the five score factors between comparable snapshots; historical scores are not recalculated.
- Recency+0.5 pts
Signal score history
Fixed 0–100 scale; dates are spaced by calendar time.
Recent recorded points
- 34.6
- 34.9
- 36.6
- 35.3
- 41.9
View all recorded scores
| Snapshot date | Signal score |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 34.6 |
| 2026-08-27 | 34.6 |
| 2026-08-28 | 36.6 |
| 2026-08-31 | 36.1 |
| 2026-09-01 | 36.0 |
| 2026-09-02 | 35.8 |
| 2026-09-03 | 35.7 |
| 2026-09-04 | 35.5 |
| 2026-09-07 | 34.9 |
| 2026-09-08 | 34.8 |
| 2026-09-09 | 34.7 |
| 2026-09-10 | 34.6 |
| 2026-09-11 | 34.6 |
| 2026-09-14 | 41.4 |
| 2026-09-23 | 37.8 |
| 2026-09-24 | 37.6 |
| 2026-09-25 | 37.3 |
| 2026-09-28 | 36.6 |
| 2026-09-29 | 36.5 |
| 2026-09-30 | 36.3 |
| 2026-10-01 | 36.1 |
| 2026-10-02 | 36.0 |
| 2026-10-03 | 36.0 |
| 2026-10-04 | 36.0 |
| 2026-10-05 | 35.6 |
| 2026-10-06 | 35.4 |
| 2026-10-07 | 35.3 |
| 2026-10-08 | 34.9 |
| 2026-10-09 | 34.8 |
| 2026-10-12 | 34.6 |
| 2026-10-13 | 34.5 |
| 2026-10-14 | 34.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | 34.4 |
| 2026-10-16 | 42.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | 41.9 |
Sector context
- Buying breadth
- 7.5% (79 / 1,047 issuers)
- Sector rank
- #8 / 12
- 7D breadth change
- -0.3 pp · vs 2026-10-12 (6d)
- 30D breadth change
- History building
This is sector-level research context. It does not affect the Insider Signal or ranking.
Insider profile outcomes
Historical performance following insider filings. The company role is translated below each name while preserving the original title.
- Excess return = stock return − FTSE 100 return over the same period.
- Hit rate = completed events with positive excess return ÷ total completed events.
- Price coverage = valid point-in-time prices ÷ events mature enough for that period.
- Returns start on the first shared trading session on or after publication.
- Small-sample rule: n<5 is shown for transparency and is not scored.
Events are disclosure-level observations; related disclosures published on the same date may share a return path and may not be statistically independent. This research enrichment does not affect the insider score or ranking.
Market context
PRICE PERFORMANCE
VOLATILITY & LIQUIDITY
- Volatility
- 26.0%
- Beta
- —
- Avg daily volume
- £2.4M
VALUATION
- Market cap
- —
- P/E
- —
FUNDAMENTALS
- Profit margin
- 2.5%
- ROE
- 16.7%
- Industry
- —
Prices to 07 Oct 2026: price cache (Eulerpool). From the company's annual report ↗, fiscal year ended 28 Mar 2026: Profit margin, ROE. It does not affect the insider score or rank.
Disclosed net short positions
- Aggregate net short
- 1.87%
- Latest position date
- 14 Oct 2026
The FCA publishes one aggregate figure per issuer, the sum of all positions notified to it, and does not name the holders. Source: FCA · read 18 Oct 2026
Short-position disclosures are external context; they do not affect the insider score, ranking, or filing eligibility.
Insiders' buying price vs the latest close
The latest close in the price history is more than a week old.
Buying size vs market trading
Market history is too old for this snapshot; ratios are withheld.
Market-data coverage: 251 verified sessions · Latest session: 2026-10-07 · Ratio status: Unavailable
Traded value is estimated as close × shares traded, in major currency units. Includes disclosed qualifying purchases; disclosures may lag. Contractual or planned acquisitions are not necessarily discretionary. Ratios describe relative trading size, not market participation or score contributions.
Latest news
No news has been captured for this company.
Regulatory filings
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-10-16 · trade date 2026-10-14
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-09-14 · trade date 2026-09-10
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-09-02 · trade date 2026-09-02
Unfold all 22 filings
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-10-16 · trade date 2026-10-14
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-09-14 · trade date 2026-09-10
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-09-02 · trade date 2026-09-02
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-08-18 · trade date 2026-08-14
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-08-13 · trade date 2026-08-10
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-07-17 · trade date 2026-07-17
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-07-15 · trade date 2026-07-10
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-07-02 · trade date 2026-07-02
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-06-19 · trade date 2026-06-19
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-06-12 · trade date 2026-06-10
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-05-14 · trade date 2026-05-11
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-04-14 · trade date 2026-04-10
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-03-18 · trade date 2026-03-18
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-03-18 · trade date 2026-03-18
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-03-12 · trade date 2026-03-10
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-02-12 · trade date 2026-02-10
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-01-15 · trade date 2026-01-12
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-01-13 · trade date 2026-01-07
- Insider filing announcement · published 2025-12-12 · trade date 2025-12-10
- Insider filing announcement · published 2025-11-19 · trade date 2025-11-19
- Insider filing announcement · published 2025-11-19 · trade date 2025-11-19
- Insider filing announcement · published 2025-11-12 · trade date 2025-11-10
Filing evidence
These are underlying national-feed records from the 365-day window ending on the saved ranking snapshot. The score uses only the latest 180 days; older qualifying equity purchases remain visible for audit but do not enter the current score. The original filer, role, transaction classification, instrument, price, volume, value and source fields are retained. The first three rows are shown; remaining records can be unfolded for audit. Other transaction types are retained but excluded from the score.
Excluded transactions & classification
16 qualifying purchase disclosure(s) · 16 transaction line(s)
Unfold all 13 remaining filing row(s)
| Transaction date | Published | Filer | Role | Transaction | Instrument | Price (local currency) | Quote currency | Volume | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 2026-07-15 | Ryan Mangold | Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer | Purchase of Partnership Shares under the FirstGroup SIP | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | 1.8105 GBP | GBP | 83 | Open filing |
| 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-12 | Ryan Mangold | Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer | Purchase of Partnership Shares under the FirstGroup SIP | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | 1.68994 GBP | GBP | 89 | Open filing |
| 2026-05-11 | 2026-05-14 | Ryan Mangold | Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer | Purchase of Partnership Shares under the FirstGroup SIP | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | 1.6680 GBP | GBP | 90 | Open filing |
| 2026-04-10 | 2026-04-14 | Ryan Mangold | Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer | Purchase of Partnership Shares under the FirstGroup SIP | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | 1.7560 GBP | GBP | 85 | Open filing |
| 2026-03-18 | 2026-03-18 | — | — | Share Purchase | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | 1.710738 GBP | GBP | 6000 | Open filing |
| 2026-03-18 | 2026-03-18 | — | — | Share Purchase | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | 1.6803 GBP | GBP | 29543 | Open filing |
| 2026-03-10 | 2026-03-12 | Ryan Mangold | Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer | Purchase of Partnership Shares under the FirstGroup SIP | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | 1.7676 GBP | GBP | 85 | Open filing |
| 2026-02-10 | 2026-02-12 | Ryan Mangold | Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer | Purchase of Partnership Shares under the FirstGroup SIP | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | 1.8979 GBP | GBP | 79 | Open filing |
| 2026-01-12 | 2026-01-15 | Ryan Mangold | Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer | Purchase of Partnership Shares under the FirstGroup SIP | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | 1.8935 GBP | GBP | 79 | Open filing |
| 2025-12-10 | 2025-12-12 | Ryan Mangold | Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer | Purchase of Partnership Shares under the FirstGroup SIP | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | 1.8458 GBP | GBP | 81 | Open filing |
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-11-19 | — | — | Share Purchase | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | 1.786 GBP | GBP | 50000 | Open filing |
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-11-19 | — | — | Share Purchase | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | 1.785 GBP | GBP | 11000 | Open filing |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 | Ryan Mangold | Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer | Purchase of Partnership Shares under the FirstGroup SIP | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | 2.0704 GBP | GBP | 73 | Open filing |
Showing 16 of 16 matching raw-feed row(s) from the current 365-day research window. Prices and reported values remain in the filing currency and its major unit (for example, UK pence are parsed as GBP). The screen-level € aggregate is separately FX-normalised for research ranking, not a trade-date conversion.
Other disclosed transactions · excluded from score
View 17 other transaction(s)
Unfold all 14 remaining filing row(s)
| Transaction date | Published | Filer | Role | Transaction | Instrument | Price (local currency) | Quote currency | Volume | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-17 | — | — | (1) Grant of options at £1.55 under the SAYE Share plan | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | — | GBP | 9863 | Open filing |
| 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-17 | — | — | (1) Grant of options at £1.55 under the SAYE Share plan | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | — | GBP | 9863 | Open filing |
| 2026-07-02 | 2026-07-02 | — | — | Release of nil-cost conditional award to acquire shares under the LTIP granted in 2023 and sale of shares partly to cover tax and national insurance. | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | — | GBP | 1090208 | Open filing |
| 2026-07-02 | 2026-07-02 | — | — | Release of nil-cost conditional award to acquire shares under the LTIP granted in 2023 and sale of shares partly to cover tax and national insurance. | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | 1.8915 GBP | GBP | 513425 | Open filing |
| 2026-07-02 | 2026-07-02 | — | — | Release of nil-cost conditional award to acquire shares under the LTIP granted in 2023 and sale of shares partly to cover tax and national insurance. | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | — | GBP | 443358 | Open filing |
| 2026-07-02 | 2026-07-02 | — | — | Release of nil-cost conditional award to acquire shares under the LTIP granted in 2023 and sale of shares partly to cover tax and national insurance. | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | 1.8915 GBP | GBP | 133425 | Open filing |
| 2026-07-02 | 2026-07-02 | — | — | Exercise of nil-cost conditional award to acquire shares under the LTIP granted in 2023, sale of shares to cover tax and national insurance | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | — | GBP | 855633 | Open filing |
| 2026-07-02 | 2026-07-02 | — | — | Exercise of nil-cost conditional award to acquire shares under the LTIP granted in 2023, sale of shares to cover tax and national insurance | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | 1.8915 GBP | GBP | 402955 | Open filing |
| 2026-07-02 | 2026-07-02 | — | — | Exercise of nil-cost conditional award to acquire shares under the LTIP granted in 2023, sale of shares to cover tax and national insurance | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | — | GBP | 452678 | Open filing |
| 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-19 | — | — | (1) Grant of conditional share award under EABP (2) Grant of conditional share award under LTIP | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | — | GBP | 175710 | Open filing |
| 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-19 | — | — | (1) Grant of conditional share award under EABP (2) Grant of conditional share award under LTIP | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | — | GBP | 661962 | Open filing |
| 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-19 | — | — | (1) Grant of conditional share award under EABP (2) Grant of conditional share award under LTIP | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | — | GBP | 145404 | Open filing |
| 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-19 | — | — | (1) Grant of conditional share award under EABP (2) Grant of conditional share award under LTIP | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | — | GBP | 486007 | Open filing |
| 2026-01-07 | 2026-01-13 | Ryan Mangold | Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer | Acquisition of shares as a result of the reinvestment of dividend income | Ordinary shares of 5p each GB0003452173 | 1.8947 GBP | GBP | 113 | Open filing |
Showing 17 of 17 matching raw-feed row(s) from the current 365-day research window. Prices and reported values remain in the filing currency and its major unit (for example, UK pence are parsed as GBP). The screen-level € aggregate is separately FX-normalised for research ranking, not a trade-date conversion.
Snapshot & identity
- Snapshot date
- 2026-10-18
- Ticker
- FGP.L
- ISIN
- GB0003452173
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Railroads
Company logos by Parqet