| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 2Small sample | 100.0% (2/2) | 100.0% (2/2) | +2.2% | +2.2% | +1.0% |
| 20D | 2Small sample | 100.0% (2/2) | 50.0% (1/2) | -3.5% | -3.5% | -9.0% |
| 60D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 0.0% (0/1) | -15.2% | -15.2% | -15.2% |
| 120D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 0.0% (0/1) | -34.3% | -34.3% | -34.3% |
COMPANY RESEARCH
Admiral Group plc
ADM.L · United Kingdom · Financial Services · Insurance—Property & Casualty
INSIDER SIGNAL
Insider activity score：38.8 / 100
1 insiders · 1 purchase events · €76k net purchases
Europe #1228 · United Kingdom #353
WHY THIS SIGNAL?
Score anatomy
Each bar shows the contribution to the current score; the weights and formula stay unchanged.
Cluster+10.5 / 35
How many distinct insiders bought in the cluster
Purchase size+18.2 / 25
Purchase value relative to company size and liquidity
Role+20.0 / 20
The seniority and relevance of participating insiders
Recency+0.1 / 10
How recently the purchases occurred
Conviction+10.0 / 10
How clearly buying stands out from other activity
What is holding the score back?
- ⚠ Buyer breadth is moderate · fewer than 4 distinct filers
- ⚠ Purchase activity is becoming less recent
- ✓ Strong insider role · ceo/chair involved
The role contribution uses the inverted role input of the current European model.
Buying concentration
100%
Largest buyer：Mike Rogers · 64k GBP
Gross qualified purchase transaction-line value：64k GBP
The headline € total is net buying for the screen; this module uses gross qualified purchase transaction-line values in the filing currency, so the amounts can differ. The current 15-day buyer-breadth input counts distinct buyers; value concentration is disclosed separately here.
This is a ranking under the current European screening rules—not a probability of gain, return forecast, or buy recommendation.
Key purchase quotes (filing currency)
| Filer | Price per unit | Trade date |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Rogers | 39.62 GBP | Aug 7, 2026 |
Model details
Cluster breakdown (does not change the score)
- 15-day buyer breadth (count)
- 1 distinct reported filers
- Peak time window
- 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-07
- Current breadth input
- 0.300 (capped at 4+ buyers)
- Buyer independence
- Not yet measured; related-party fields are not cross-market comparable
What the filings show
- 🟢 Recent eligible purchase
Mike Rogers · 64k GBP · Price 39.62 GBP · Aug 7, 2026 - 🔴 16 other transaction line(s) are not counted as discretionary-buying evidence; 0 have zero price
Insider vs stock price
No daily prices and volumes have been captured for this stock yet.
Insider timeline
One insider bought, once (7 Aug).
Tap an item for what it means.
●A purchase: the bigger the dot, the more was bought
Each dot is one insider's purchases on one day. The dot's area follows the amount: the largest purchase here gets the largest dot. Hold the pointer over a dot to see the date and the amount.
▂Grey bars: companies across Europe disclosing purchases each week
A taller bar is a week in which more companies disclosed insider purchases.
This company: insiders buying per month, last 12 months
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
1Aug
Sep
Oct
Darker bars are inside the 180-day window above.
Who traded
| Insider | Role | Purchases | Sales | Bought | First purchase | Share price since | Earlier purchases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Rogers | CEO / chair | 1 | — | 63.9k GBP | 2026-08-07 | — | fewer than 5 completed |
Why this score? · Model details
Priority = 100 × Σ(fixed weight × 0–1 rule-based input)
| Factor | Weight | This company input | Point contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15-day buyer breadth (count) | 35% | 0.300 | 10.5 |
| Qualified-buy size | 25% | 0.729 | 18.2 |
| Role informativeness (inverted) | 20% | 0.000 | 0.0 |
| Recency | 10% | 0.005 | 0.1 |
| Buy/sell conviction | 10% | 1.000 | 10.0 |
This is a heuristic ordering under the current rules, not a calibrated return forecast. It explains why candidates rank differently; the public-filing evidence and data limits are shown below.
BULL VS BEAR
Two readings of this buying
The same filings, read two ways. Each line is a fact stored for this company with the number behind it, and appears only when that number crosses a fixed threshold. Neither side is a forecast and no winner is declared.
All bull and bear lists, and what followed each line in the past →
Where the evidence comes from
The two kinds of evidence disagree: the purchases themselves carry bull lines (senior executive buying), while short sellers argue against (published short positions). Also, company actions point the same way (company is buying back shares).
- The insider purchases themselvesBullsenior executive buying Bearone buyer only, small purchases4 checked, under the threshold · 3 missing
- Share price and trading2 checked, under the threshold
- Short sellersBearpublished short positions
- Company results1 checked, under the threshold · 1 missing
- Company actionsBullcompany is buying back shares
Bull case · the buying is informative
- Company actionsThe company announced 4 transactions in its own shares in the last 30 days (latest 2026-10-21); the 4 read are all purchases. The company is buying its own shares while its insiders buy.
- The buyers include the CEO or chair, who sees more of the business than most filers. This site's score gives little or no credit for that: in its backtests purchases by senior executives did no better than other insiders' purchases.Record: after 8,738 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −3.1%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−3.2%).
Bear case · discount it
- Only one insider bought. A single purchase can reflect that person's own finances rather than a view on the company.Record: after 4,757 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −2.8%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−3.3%).
- Net purchases of €76k are <0.01% of the company's market value (€13.6bn): a visible sum, a small one against the business.
- Short sellersPublished net short positions add up to 3.07% of the share capital: other professional investors are positioned the opposite way. On 2026-10-09 it was 2.78%: up 0.29 points since.
Evidence still missing
- No buyer here has 5 or more completed earlier purchases on record, so there is no track record to weigh.
- Only one reading of profitability is held (profit margin 13%). Whether earnings and cash flow are rising or falling needs the last two reports side by side.
- European notifications have no field saying whether a purchase was pre-arranged; there is no counterpart to the US 10b5-1 box. The one purchase line does not mention a plan, but a bare “Acquisition of shares pursuant to a Share Acquisition Agreement entered into on 14 June 2023” does not rule one out.
- The filings give the size of each trade, not what the buyer already held. Whether a purchase added 1% to a personal stake or doubled it is not known.
Checked and under the threshold: 7, 1 close to it
- EitherThe latest purchase is 77 days old. Bull up to 14 days, bear from 90. close to the threshold
- Either1 insider bought in the last 180 days and 0 in the 180 days before. Bull when the number at least doubles and rises by two; bear when at least two bought before and no more buy now.
- Bear0 of 1 buyer filed as a person closely associated with a manager. Counted for the bear side from half.
- BearNo insider sale is recorded in the same 180 days.
- BearThe share price changed +15% over six months (three months −1.3%, one month −8.1%) and stands 12% below its 52-week high. Counted for the bear side from a fall of 20%.
- BearOver three months the share price changed −1.3% and the median of 319 Financial Services companies changed −0.64%: behind by 1 points. Counted for the bear side from 20 points behind.
- BearProfit margin on the latest captured figures is 13%. Counted for the bear side when negative.
Both columns arrange stored facts only. They do not change the insider score or the ranking and are not investment advice.
Signal history
38.8 / 100
Latest recorded score
→ +0.0 ptssince the first recorded snapshot on 2026-10-21; 2 calendar days observed
- Recorded snapshots
- 3
- First snapshot
- 2026-10-21
There is not yet a 30-calendar-day comparison; earlier scores are not reconstructed. These are raw signal scores saved when each full scoring run completed. They describe changes in research ranking, not price performance or returns.
Why did it change?
Less than 30 days of comparable history is available, so factor movement is not yet decomposed.
Signal score history
Fixed 0–100 scale; dates are spaced by calendar time.
Recent recorded points
- 38.8
- 38.8
- 38.8
View all recorded scores
| Snapshot date | Signal score |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 38.8 |
| 2026-10-22 | 38.8 |
| 2026-10-23 | 38.8 |
Sector context
- Buying breadth
- 9.9% (65 / 656 issuers)
- Sector rank
- #5 / 12
- 7D breadth change
- +1.1 pp · vs 2026-10-16 (7d)
- 30D breadth change
- History building
This is sector-level research context. It does not affect the Insider Signal or ranking.
Insider profile outcomes
Historical performance following insider filings. The company role is translated below each name while preserving the original title.
- Excess return = stock return − FTSE 100 return over the same period.
- Hit rate = completed events with positive excess return ÷ total completed events.
- Price coverage = valid point-in-time prices ÷ events mature enough for that period.
- Returns start on the first shared trading session on or after publication.
- Small-sample rule: n<5 is shown for transparency and is not scored.
Events are disclosure-level observations; related disclosures published on the same date may share a return path and may not be statistically independent. This research enrichment does not affect the insider score or ranking.
| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 100.0% (1/1) | +1.4% | +1.4% | +1.4% |
| 20D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 0.0% (0/1) | -2.4% | -2.4% | -2.4% |
| 60D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 100.0% (1/1) | +10.6% | +10.6% | +10.6% |
| 120D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 100.0% (1/1) | +18.2% | +18.2% | +18.2% |
Market context
PRICE PERFORMANCE
VOLATILITY & LIQUIDITY
- Volatility
- 24.8%
- Beta
- 0.19
- Avg daily volume
- £26.5M
VALUATION
- Market cap
- £11.4B
- P/E
- 17.3×
FUNDAMENTALS
- Profit margin
- 13.4%
- ROE
- 45.6%
- Industry
- Insurance - Property & Casualty
Prices to 30 Sep 2026: OpenBB/yfinance. From OpenBB/yfinance, captured 21 Oct 2026: Market cap, P/E, Profit margin, ROE, Beta, Industry. It does not affect the insider score or rank.
Disclosed net short positions
- Aggregate net short
- 3.07%
- Latest position date
- 21 Oct 2026
The FCA publishes one aggregate figure per issuer, the sum of all positions notified to it, and does not name the holders. Source: FCA · read 23 Oct 2026
Short-position disclosures are external context; they do not affect the insider score, ranking, or filing eligibility.
Insiders and institutions
Insiders, ranking window: €76.3k net bought · buyers: 1 · last 2026-08-07
Short sellers
- Sum of published positions
- 3.07%register total
- Change, about 4 weeks
- +0.29 ppfrom 2.78% on 2026-10-02
- Change, about 12 weeks
- +0.38 ppfrom 2.69% on 2026-08-07
- Published short, 6 months
- line: insiders' last purchase
The published short positions changed little while insiders bought.
Source: FCA, read 2026-10-23. Where holders are named, only positions of 0.5% of issued capital or more are published, so these are lower bounds and a change is a change in what was published. Context only; not part of the score. All companies where insiders buy and short sellers hold positions →
Insiders' buying price vs the latest close
No daily prices have been captured for this stock yet.
Buying size vs market trading
Complete price and volume history is not yet available.
Market-data coverage: 0 verified sessions · Latest session: — · Ratio status: Unavailable
Traded value is estimated as close × shares traded, in major currency units. Includes disclosed qualifying purchases; disclosures may lag. Contractual or planned acquisitions are not necessarily discretionary. Ratios describe relative trading size, not market participation or score contributions.
Latest news
No news has been captured for this company.
Regulatory filings
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-10-16 · trade date 2026-10-14
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-10-06 · trade date 2026-10-02
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-10-05 · trade date 2026-10-02
Unfold all 16 filings
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-10-16 · trade date 2026-10-14
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-10-06 · trade date 2026-10-02
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-10-05 · trade date 2026-10-02
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-09-28 · trade date 2026-09-28
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-08-20 · trade date 2026-08-20
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-08-10 · trade date 2026-08-07
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-06-12 · trade date 2026-06-11
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-06-09 · trade date 2026-06-08
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-06-09 · trade date 2026-06-05
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-06-09 · trade date 2026-06-05
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-03-25 · trade date 2026-03-24
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-03-17 · trade date 2026-03-13
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-03-12 · trade date 2026-03-12
- Insider filing announcement · published 2025-12-17 · trade date 2025-12-16
- Insider filing announcement · published 2025-11-14 · trade date 2025-11-13
- Insider filing announcement · published 2025-11-11 · trade date 2025-11-11
Filing evidence
These are underlying national-feed records from the 365-day window ending on the saved ranking snapshot. The score uses only the latest 180 days; older qualifying equity purchases remain visible for audit but do not enter the current score. The original filer, role, transaction classification, instrument, price, volume, value and source fields are retained. The first three rows are shown; remaining records can be unfolded for audit. Other transaction types are retained but excluded from the score.
Excluded transactions & classification
1 qualifying purchase disclosure(s) · 1 transaction line(s)
Aug 7, 2026Acquisition of shares pursuant to a Share Acquisition Agreement entered into on 14 June 2023
Mike Rogers · Chair/PDMR
Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 · 1613 shares × 39.62 GBP · —
Open filingShowing 1 of 1 matching raw-feed row(s) from the current 365-day research window. Prices and reported values remain in the filing currency and its major unit (for example, UK pence are parsed as GBP). The screen-level € aggregate is separately FX-normalised for research ranking, not a trade-date conversion.
Other disclosed transactions · excluded from score
View 22 other transaction(s)
Oct 14, 2026Acquisition of shares pursuant to a dividend reinvestment trading plan entered into on 17 May 2020.
Michael Brierley · Non-Executive Director/PDMR
Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 · — shares × — · —
Open filingOct 14, 2026Acquisition of shares pursuant to a dividend reinvestment trading plan entered into on 17 May 2020.
Rachel Brierley · Wife of Non-Executive Director/PDMR, Michael Brierley/PCA
Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 · 76 shares × 36.84 GBP · —
Open filingOct 2, 2026Acquisition of Ordinary Shares under the dividend reinvestment plan under the Admiral Group Approved Share Incentive Plan
Rachel Lewis · Chief Financial Officer/PDMR
Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 · — shares × — · —
Open filingUnfold all 19 remaining filing row(s)
| Transaction date | Published | Filer | Role | Transaction | Instrument | Price (local currency) | Quote currency | Volume | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | 2026-10-05 | William Roberts | Non-Executive Director/PDMR | Acquisition of shares pursuant to a dividend reinvestment trading plan entered into on 25 May 2022. | Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 | — | GBP | — | Open filing |
| 2026-09-28 | 2026-09-28 | Milena Mondini De Focatiis | Chief Executive Officer/PDMR | Vesting of 84,996 shares awarded under the Company’s Discretionary Free Share Scheme. 39,950 shares were sold to cover personal tax and national insurance liabilities and 45,046 have been retained. | Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 | — | GBP | — | Open filing |
| 2026-09-28 | 2026-09-28 | Rachel Lewis | Chief Financial Officer/PDMR | Vesting of 8,818 shares awarded under the Company’s Discretionary Free Share Scheme. 6,481 shares were sold. Part of the proceeds of this sale will cover personal tax and national insurance liabilities and 2,337 have been retained. | Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 | — | GBP | — | Open filing |
| 2026-09-28 | 2026-09-28 | Scott Cargill | Deputy CEO UK Insurance/PDMR | Vesting of 19,691 shares awarded under the Company’s Discretionary Free Share Scheme. 19,691 shares were sold. | Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 | — | GBP | — | Open filing |
| 2026-09-28 | 2026-09-28 | Costantino Moretti | Head of International/PDMR | Vesting of 20,629 shares awarded under the Company’s Discretionary Free Share Scheme. 20,629 shares were sold. | Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 | — | GBP | — | Open filing |
| 2026-09-28 | 2026-09-28 | Alistair Hargreaves | CEO UK Insurance/PDMR | Vesting of 19,066 shares awarded under the Company’s Discretionary Free Share Scheme. 19,066 shares were sold. | Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 | — | GBP | — | Open filing |
| 2026-09-28 | 2026-09-28 | Keith Davies | Chief Risk Officer /PDMR | Vesting of 14,299 shares awarded under the Company’s Discretionary Free Share Scheme. 14,299 shares were sold. | Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 | — | GBP | — | Open filing |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-20 | Milena Mondini de Focatiis (CEO/PDMR) Rachel Lewis (CFO/PDMR) Alistair Hargreaves (CEO UK Insurance/PDMR) Keith Davies (CRO/PDMR) Scott Cargill (Deputy CEO UK Insurance/PDMR) | As above | Award of 47 shares each under the Admiral Group Approved Share Incentive Plan (SIP) | Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 | — | GBP | — | Open filing |
| 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-12 | Michael Brierley | Non-Executive Director/PDMR | Acquisition of shares pursuant to a dividend reinvestment trading plan entered into on 17 May 2020. | Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 | — | GBP | — | Open filing |
| 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-12 | Rachel Brierley | Wife of Non-Executive Director/PDMR, Michael Brierley/PCA | Acquisition of shares pursuant to a dividend reinvestment trading plan entered into on 17 May 2020. | Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 | — | GBP | — | Open filing |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-09 | William Roberts | Non-Executive Director/PDMR | Acquisition of shares pursuant to a dividend reinvestment trading plan entered into on 25 May 2022. | Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 | — | GBP | — | Open filing |
| 2026-06-05 | 2026-06-09 | Rachel Lewis | Admiral Group CFO Designate/PDMR | Acquisition of Ordinary Shares under the dividend reinvestment plan under the Admiral Group Approved Share Incentive Plan | Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 | — | GBP | — | Open filing |
| 2026-06-05 | 2026-06-09 | Geraint Jones | Chief Financial Officer/PDMR | Acquisition of Ordinary Shares under the dividend reinvestment plan under the Admiral Group Approved Share Incentive Plan | Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 | — | GBP | — | Open filing |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-25 | Milena Mondini de Focatiis | Group Chief Executive Officer, Admiral Group Plc | Charitable donation by way of a gift of Ordinary Shares | Ordinary shares of 0.1pence each GB00B02J6398 | — | GBP | 12500 | Open filing |
| 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-17 | Costantino Moretti | Head of International Insurance/PDMR | Vesting of 95 ordinary shares awarded on 13 March 2023 under the Share Incentive Plan (SIP) equivalent scheme for international managers. | Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 | — | GBP | — | Open filing |
| 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-12 | Milena Mondini de Focatiis (CEO/PDMR) Geraint Jones (CFO/PDMR) Alistair Hargreaves (CEO UK Insurance/PDMR) Keith Davies (CRO/PDMR) Scott Cargill (CEO Admiral Money/PDMR) Rachel Lewis (EUI Chief Financial Officer/PDMR) | As above | Award of 55 shares each under the Admiral Group Approved Share Incentive Plan (SIP) | Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 | — | GBP | — | Open filing |
| 2025-12-16 | 2025-12-17 | Scott Cargill | Director, Pet, Travel and Household/PDMR | Vesting of 11,789 shares awarded under the Company’s Discretionary Free Share Scheme. 11,789 shares were sold. | Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 | — | GBP | — | Open filing |
| 2025-11-13 | 2025-11-14 | Geraint Jones | Group Chief Financial Officer and PDMR, Admiral Group Plc | Charitable donation by way of a gift of Ordinary Shares | Ordinary shares of 0.1pence each GB00B02J6398 | — | GBP | 7500 | Open filing |
| 2025-11-11 | 2025-11-11 | Milena Mondini de Focatiis | Chief Executive Officer/PDMR | Sale of Ordinary shares | Ordinary Shares GB00B02J6398 | — | GBP | — | Open filing |
Showing 22 of 22 matching raw-feed row(s) from the current 365-day research window. Prices and reported values remain in the filing currency and its major unit (for example, UK pence are parsed as GBP). The screen-level € aggregate is separately FX-normalised for research ranking, not a trade-date conversion.
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Snapshot & identity
- Snapshot date
- 2026-10-23
- Ticker
- ADM.L
- ISIN
- GB00B02J6398
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Insurance—Property & Casualty
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