| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 3Small sample | 100.0% (3/3) | 100.0% (3/3) | +4.4% | +4.3% | +3.7% |
| 20D | 3Small sample | 100.0% (3/3) | 100.0% (3/3) | +4.6% | +9.9% | +1.0% |
| 60D | 3Small sample | 100.0% (3/3) | 66.7% (2/3) | +9.8% | +35.4% | -1.9% |
| 120D | 3Small sample | 100.0% (3/3) | 66.7% (2/3) | +8.8% | +14.5% | -4.4% |
COMPANY RESEARCH
Guardian Metal Resources plc
8TM0.MU · United Kingdom · Basic Materials · Other Precious Metals & Mining
INSIDER SIGNAL
Insider activity score：58.5 / 100
3 insiders · 3 purchase events · €105k net purchases
Europe #341 · United Kingdom #100
WHY THIS SIGNAL?
Score anatomy
Each bar shows the contribution to the current score; the weights and formula stay unchanged.
Cluster+29.8 / 35
How many distinct insiders bought in the cluster
Purchase size+18.8 / 25
Purchase value relative to company size and liquidity
Role+20.0 / 20
The seniority and relevance of participating insiders
Recency+0.0 / 10
How recently the purchases occurred
Conviction+10.0 / 10
How clearly buying stands out from other activity
What is holding the score back?
- ⚠ Purchase activity is becoming less recent
- ✓ Broad buyer cluster · 4+ distinct filers
- ✓ Strong insider role · ceo/chair involved
The role contribution uses the inverted role input of the current European model.
Buying concentration
Not worked out: the scoring window holds no qualifying purchase filing, or the purchases are reported in more than one currency.
This is a ranking under the current European screening rules—not a probability of gain, return forecast, or buy recommendation.
Key purchase quotes (filing currency)
| Filer | Price per unit | Trade date |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Schlumpberger | 10.01 USD | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Oliver Friesen | 1.48 GBP | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Jason Thomas Starzecki | 9.54 USD | Jul 17, 2026 |
Model details
Cluster breakdown (does not change the score)
- 15-day buyer breadth (count)
- 3 distinct reported filers
- Peak time window
- 2026-07-17 to 2026-07-17
- Current breadth input
- 0.850 (capped at 4+ buyers)
- Buyer independence
- Not yet measured; related-party fields are not cross-market comparable
What the filings show
- 🟢 Recent eligible purchase
Michael Schlumpberger · 55k USD · Price 10.01 USD · Jul 17, 2026 - 🟢 PDMR purchase
Oliver Friesen · 30k GBP · Price 1.48 GBP · Jul 17, 2026 - 🟢 PDMR purchase
Jason Thomas Starzecki · 24k USD · Price 9.54 USD · Jul 17, 2026
Insider vs stock price
1 purchase day(s), 3 purchase line(s) in the 180-day window.
Daily close (EUR)Day with an insider purchaseTwo or more insiders the same day
Markers sit on the closing price of the transaction day. They show when insiders traded, not the price they paid or received. "Since" compares that day's close with the last close shown; it is what happened at this company, not a forecast.
If you had followed the purchase
Each row starts on the first close on or after the day a purchase was made public, the earliest a reader could have acted, and ends on the last close shown above.
| Made public | Insiders | In this stock, now | In the median peer stock, now | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | 3 | 749 −25.1% | too few peers | — |
Close to close, before costs, taxes, dividends and currency moves. The peer is the median of the other stocks on the same exchange for which this site holds prices (0 here), not an index. This is what happened, not a forecast: across all purchases on this site the typical gap is close to zero.
Insider timeline
3 insiders bought on the same day, 17 Jul: 2 CEO / chair, 1 Board member. The share closed at 8.70 that day and at 7.00 most recently (−19.5%). That week 181 companies across Europe disclosed insider purchases, an ordinary week (15 of the last 26).
Tap an item for what it means.
●A purchase: the bigger the dot, the more was bought
Each dot is one insider's purchases on one day. The dot's area follows the amount: the largest purchase here gets the largest dot. Hold the pointer over a dot to see the date and the amount.
▮Purple band: several insiders bought within 15 days
The band marks the stretch with the most different buyers: at most 15 days long and at least two people. Here it is 17 Jul, with 3 insiders. Only the strongest stretch is marked. Several people deciding the same thing is harder to explain by one person's private reasons, but insiders often buy together just after a closed period ends, so compare it with the grey weekly bars.
Blue line: this share's price, −44.0% over these six months
The closing price of each day, from 12.50 on 2026-06-26 to 7.00 on 2026-10-09. The line has no scale; read it for high and low: a dot on a low stretch was bought cheaply, a dot on a high stretch was not.
▂Grey bars: companies across Europe disclosing purchases each week
A taller bar is a week in which more companies disclosed insider purchases. The purple bar is the week of the band above: 181 companies, number 15 of the last 26 weeks. If that week was a peak anyway, buying together is less special than it looks.
This company: insiders buying per month, last 12 months
Nov
Dec
3Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
3Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Darker bars are inside the 180-day window above.
Who traded
| Insider | Role | Purchases | Sales | Bought | First purchase | Share price since | Earlier purchases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Thomas Starzecki | CEO / chair | 1 | — | 23.8k USD | 2026-07-17 | −19.5% | fewer than 5 completed |
| Oliver Friesen | CEO / chair | 1 | — | 29.6k GBP | 2026-07-17 | −19.5% | fewer than 5 completed |
| Michael Schlumpberger | Board member | 1 | — | 55.1k USD | 2026-07-17 | −19.5% | fewer than 5 completed |
Why this score? · Model details
Priority = 100 × Σ(fixed weight × 0–1 rule-based input)
| Factor | Weight | This company input | Point contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15-day buyer breadth (count) | 35% | 0.850 | 29.8 |
| Qualified-buy size | 25% | 0.750 | 18.8 |
| Role informativeness (inverted) | 20% | 0.000 | 0.0 |
| Recency | 10% | 0.002 | 0.0 |
| Buy/sell conviction | 10% | 1.000 | 10.0 |
This is a heuristic ordering under the current rules, not a calibrated return forecast. It explains why candidates rank differently; the public-filing evidence and data limits are shown below.
BULL VS BEAR
Two readings of this buying
The same filings, read two ways. Each line is a fact stored for this company with the number behind it, and appears only when that number crosses a fixed threshold. Neither side is a forecast and no winner is declared.
Since 2026-10-13: new on the bear side: latest purchase is old. All bull and bear lists, and what followed each line in the past →
Where the evidence comes from
The two kinds of evidence disagree: the purchases themselves carry bull lines (several insiders together, senior executive buying), while share price and trading argue against (price trails its sector). No data is held for: company results.
- The insider purchases themselvesBullseveral insiders together, senior executive buying Bearlatest purchase is old, usual level for this company3 checked, under the threshold · 3 missing
- Share price and tradingBearprice trails its sector
- Short sellers1 checked, under the threshold
- Company results2 missing
- Company actions1 checked, under the threshold
Bull case · the buying is informative
- 3 insiders bought on the same day (2026-07-17). Several people reaching the same decision at the same time is hard to put down to one person's circumstances.Record: after 5,401 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −3.3%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−3.3%).
- The buyers include the CEO or chair, who sees more of the business than most filers. This site's score gives little or no credit for that: in its backtests purchases by senior executives did no better than other insiders' purchases.Record: after 8,797 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −3.1%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−3.2%).
Bear case · discount it
- The latest purchase was 92 days ago (2026-07-17). A reporting period has passed since, so what the buyers knew then may already be public.
- Buying at this level is normal here: 3 insiders bought in the previous 180 days and 3 in this one.Record: after 2,869 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −2.6%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−2.7%).
- Share price and tradingOver three months the share price changed −31% and the median of 176 Basic Materials companies changed +<0.01%: 31 points behind. The market has marked this company down against its own sector.
Evidence still missing
- No buyer here has 5 or more completed earlier purchases on record, so there is no track record to weigh.
- The company's market value is not captured, so the purchases cannot be stated as a share of the business or of its trading volume.
- No earnings, margin or cash-flow figures are captured for this company. The latest annual and interim reports are where to check whether the business is improving or deteriorating.
- European notifications have no field saying whether a purchase was pre-arranged; there is no counterpart to the US 10b5-1 box. None of the 3 purchase lines mentions a plan, but a bare “Purchase of shares” does not rule one out.
- The filings give the size of each trade, not what the buyer already held. Whether a purchase added 1% to a personal stake or doubled it is not known.
Checked and under the threshold: 5
- Bear0 of 3 buyers filed as a person closely associated with a manager. Counted for the bear side from half.
- EitherNet purchases of €105k in 180 days. Bull from €1.0M, bear when all purchases total under €25k.
- BearNo insider sale is recorded in the same 180 days.
- BearThe register of FCA shows no published net short position in this company.
- BullThe company announced no transaction in its own shares in the last 30 days.
Both columns arrange stored facts only. They do not change the insider score or the ranking and are not investment advice.
Signal history
58.5 / 100
Latest recorded score
↓ -0.1 ptsversus the comparable snapshot on 2026-09-14 (34 calendar days apart)
- Recorded snapshots
- 35
- First snapshot
- 2026-08-26
Only scores captured when the scoring run completed are compared. These are raw signal scores saved when each full scoring run completed. They describe changes in research ranking, not price performance or returns.
Why did it change?
Decomposition across the five score factors between comparable snapshots; historical scores are not recalculated.
- Purchase size+0.1 pts
- Recency-0.2 pts
Signal score history
Fixed 0–100 scale; dates are spaced by calendar time.
Recent recorded points
- 60.2
- 58.7
- 58.5
- 58.5
- 58.5
View all recorded scores
| Snapshot date | Signal score |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 60.2 |
| 2026-08-27 | 60.2 |
| 2026-08-28 | 59.0 |
| 2026-08-31 | 58.9 |
| 2026-09-01 | 58.9 |
| 2026-09-02 | 58.8 |
| 2026-09-03 | 58.8 |
| 2026-09-04 | 58.8 |
| 2026-09-07 | 58.7 |
| 2026-09-08 | 58.7 |
| 2026-09-09 | 58.7 |
| 2026-09-10 | 58.7 |
| 2026-09-11 | 58.7 |
| 2026-09-14 | 58.6 |
| 2026-09-23 | 58.6 |
| 2026-09-24 | 58.6 |
| 2026-09-25 | 58.5 |
| 2026-09-28 | 58.5 |
| 2026-09-29 | 58.5 |
| 2026-09-30 | 58.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | 58.5 |
| 2026-10-02 | 58.5 |
| 2026-10-03 | 58.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | 58.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | 58.5 |
| 2026-10-06 | 58.5 |
| 2026-10-07 | 58.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | 58.5 |
| 2026-10-09 | 58.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | 58.5 |
| 2026-10-13 | 58.5 |
| 2026-10-14 | 58.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | 58.5 |
| 2026-10-16 | 58.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | 58.5 |
Sector context
- Buying breadth
- 7.0% (27 / 388 issuers)
- Sector rank
- #9 / 12
- 7D breadth change
- -0.8 pp · vs 2026-10-12 (6d)
- 30D breadth change
- History building
This is sector-level research context. It does not affect the Insider Signal or ranking.
Insider profile outcomes
Historical performance following insider filings. The company role is translated below each name while preserving the original title.
- Excess return = stock return − FTSE 100 return over the same period.
- Hit rate = completed events with positive excess return ÷ total completed events.
- Price coverage = valid point-in-time prices ÷ events mature enough for that period.
- Returns start on the first shared trading session on or after publication.
- Small-sample rule: n<5 is shown for transparency and is not scored.
Events are disclosure-level observations; related disclosures published on the same date may share a return path and may not be statistically independent. This research enrichment does not affect the insider score or ranking.
| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 2Small sample | 100.0% (2/2) | 50.0% (1/2) | +0.9% | +0.9% | -3.4% |
| 20D | 2Small sample | 100.0% (2/2) | 100.0% (2/2) | +21.3% | +21.3% | +20.6% |
| 60D | 2Small sample | 100.0% (2/2) | 50.0% (1/2) | +20.7% | +20.7% | -30.2% |
| 120D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 100.0% (1/1) | +26.5% | +26.5% | +26.5% |
| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 0.0% (0/1) | -3.4% | -3.4% | -3.4% |
| 20D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 100.0% (1/1) | +22.1% | +22.1% | +22.1% |
| 60D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 100.0% (1/1) | +71.5% | +71.5% | +71.5% |
| 120D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 100.0% (1/1) | +26.5% | +26.5% | +26.5% |
Market context
PRICE PERFORMANCE
VOLATILITY & LIQUIDITY
- Volatility
- 81.7%
- Beta
- —
- Avg daily volume
- €42.0
VALUATION
- Market cap
- —
- P/E
- —
FUNDAMENTALS
- Profit margin
- —
- ROE
- —
- Industry
- —
Prices to 11 Oct 2026: OpenBB/yfinance; volume from price cache (yfinance). It does not affect the insider score or rank.
Disclosed net short positions
The FCA register, read 18 Oct 2026, publishes no aggregate net short position for this issuer.
Short-position disclosures are external context; they do not affect the insider score, ranking, or filing eligibility.
Insiders' buying price vs the latest close
The latest close in the price history is more than a week old.
Buying size vs market trading
Market history is too old for this snapshot; ratios are withheld.
Market-data coverage: 76 verified sessions · Latest session: 2026-10-09 · Ratio status: Unavailable
Traded value is estimated as close × shares traded, in major currency units. Includes disclosed qualifying purchases; disclosures may lag. Contractual or planned acquisitions are not necessarily discretionary. Ratios describe relative trading size, not market participation or score contributions.
Latest news
No news has been captured for this company.
Regulatory filings
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-07-21 · trade date 2026-07-17
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-01-13 · trade date 2026-01-12
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-01-09 · trade date 2026-01-07
Filing evidence
These are underlying national-feed records from the 365-day window ending on the saved ranking snapshot. The score uses only the latest 180 days; older qualifying equity purchases remain visible for audit but do not enter the current score. The original filer, role, transaction classification, instrument, price, volume, value and source fields are retained. The first three rows are shown; remaining records can be unfolded for audit. Other transaction types are retained but excluded from the score.
Excluded transactions & classification
6 qualifying purchase disclosure(s) · 6 transaction line(s)
Jul 17, 2026Purchase of shares
Oliver Friesen · Chief Executive Officer
Ordinary shares of 1p each ADS's - e ach ADS represents 5 ordinary shares of 1 pence in Guardian Metal Resources plc. ADS's ISIN: US4013821065 · 20000 shares × 1.48 GBP · —
Open filingJul 17, 2026Purchase of shares
Michael Schlumpberger · Non-executive Director
Ordinary shares of 1p each ADS's - e ach ADS represents 5 ordinary shares of 1 pence in Guardian Metal Resources plc. ADS's ISIN: US4013821065 · 5500 shares × 10.01 USD · —
Open filingJul 17, 2026Purchase of shares
Jason Thomas Starzecki · Executive Chairman
Ordinary shares of 1p each ADS's - e ach ADS represents 5 ordinary shares of 1 pence in Guardian Metal Resources plc. ADS's ISIN: US4013821065 · 2500 shares × 9.54 USD · —
Open filingUnfold all 3 remaining filing row(s)
| Transaction date | Published | Filer | Role | Transaction | Instrument | Price (local currency) | Quote currency | Volume | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | 2026-01-13 | Oliver Friesen | Chief Executive Officer | Purchase of shares | ordinary shares of 1p each | 1.48 GBP | GBP | 20100 | Open filing |
| 2026-01-12 | 2026-01-13 | J.T. Starzecki | Executive Chairman | Purchase of shares | ordinary shares of 1p each | 1.49 GBP | GBP | 37250 | Open filing |
| 2026-01-07 | 2026-01-09 | Ben Hodges | Finance Director | Purchase of shares | ordinary shares of 1p each | 1.4299 GBP | GBP | 17501 | Open filing |
Showing 6 of 6 matching raw-feed row(s) from the current 365-day research window. Prices and reported values remain in the filing currency and its major unit (for example, UK pence are parsed as GBP). The screen-level € aggregate is separately FX-normalised for research ranking, not a trade-date conversion.
Other disclosed transactions · excluded from score
The underlying filing feed is unavailable in this snapshot; this is not a claim that no filings exist.
Snapshot & identity
- Snapshot date
- 2026-10-18
- Ticker
- 8TM0.MU
- ISIN
- US4013821065
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Other Precious Metals & Mining
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