Stock Trading Canary
| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 100.0% (1/1) | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.5% |
| 20D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 100.0% (1/1) | +1.8% | +1.8% | +1.8% |
| 60D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 0.0% (0/1) | -22.3% | -22.3% | -22.3% |
| 120D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 0.0% (0/1) | -37.2% | -37.2% | -37.2% |
COMPANY RESEARCH
4imprint Group plc
FOUR.L · United Kingdom · Communication Services · Advertising Agencies
Insider Signal
Snapshot: 05 Nov 2026 · 180-day research window
- Insider Signal
- 43.3 / 100 Research score, not a buy recommendation
- Reported buyers
- 1 180-day scoring window
- Net purchases
- 37.3k EUR 180 days · purchases less sales
- Latest disclosure
- 2026-10-28 Publication date
What stands out
- Paul Anthony Forman accounts for 100% of comparable reported purchase value; buyer breadth and value are different measures.
Price vs insider buying
FOUR.L · GBp● Purchase × Sale ◇ Public disclosure ▥ 15-day cluster ·
Circles and crosses mark trade dates; diamonds below the axis mark later public disclosures. The trade became public on its disclosure date. Prices are nearest-session closes, not insider execution prices. Marker sizes are not compared when values or currencies differ.
BULL VS BEAR
Two readings of this buying
The same filings, read two ways. Each line is a fact stored for this company with the number behind it, and appears only when that number crosses a fixed threshold. Neither side is a forecast and no winner is declared.
Since 2026-11-03, neither column has changed. All bull and bear lists, and what followed each line in the past →
Where the evidence comes from
Independent evidence does not object: the purchases themselves carry bull lines (senior executive buying, bought in the last two weeks); share price and trading, short sellers, company results, company actions were checked and none crosses a bear threshold.
- The insider purchases themselvesBullsenior executive buying, bought in the last two weeks Bearone buyer only, small purchases3 checked, under the threshold · 3 missing
- Share price and trading3 checked, under the threshold
- Short sellers1 checked, under the threshold
- Company results1 checked, under the threshold · 1 missing
- Company actions1 checked, under the threshold
Bull case · the buying is informative
- The buyers include the CEO or chair, who sees more of the business than most filers. This site's score gives little or no credit for that: in its backtests purchases by senior executives did no better than other insiders' purchases.Record: after 8,812 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −3.1%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−3.4%).
- The latest purchase is 8 days old (2026-10-28). The buying is current, not left over from an earlier quarter.
Bear case · discount it
- Only one insider bought. A single purchase can reflect that person's own finances rather than a view on the company.Record: after 4,900 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −3.0%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−3.4%).
- Net purchases of €37k are <0.01% of the company's market value (€1.5bn): a visible sum, a small one against the business.
Evidence still missing
- No buyer here has 5 or more completed earlier purchases on record, so there is no track record to weigh.
- Only one reading of profitability is held (profit margin 7.5%). Whether earnings and cash flow are rising or falling needs the last two reports side by side.
- European notifications have no field saying whether a purchase was pre-arranged; there is no counterpart to the US 10b5-1 box. The one purchase line does not mention a plan, but a bare “Purchase of ordinary shares” does not rule one out.
- The filings give the size of each trade, not what the buyer already held. Whether a purchase added 1% to a personal stake or doubled it is not known.
Checked and under the threshold: 9
- Either1 insider bought in the last 180 days and 0 in the 180 days before. Bull when the number at least doubles and rises by two; bear when at least two bought before and no more buy now.
- Bear0 of 1 buyer filed as a person closely associated with a manager. Counted for the bear side from half.
- BearNo insider sale is recorded in the same 180 days.
- BearThe share price changed +18% over six months (three months −9.6%, one month +4.5%) and stands 12% below its 52-week high. Counted for the bear side from a fall of 20%.
- BearOver three months the share price changed −9.6% and the median of 168 Communication Services companies changed +0.08%: behind by 10 points. Counted for the bear side from 20 points behind.
- BearPublished net short positions add up to 0.20% of the share capital. Counted for the bear side from 2%. Unchanged since 2026-10-22.
- BullThe company announced no transaction in its own shares in the last 30 days.
- BearProfit margin on the latest captured figures is 7.5%. Counted for the bear side when negative.
- BearAbout €1.6M of the stock changes hands on an average day. Counted for the bear side below €500k.
Both columns arrange stored facts only. They do not change the insider score or the ranking and are not investment advice.
Who is trading?
Named filings in 180 days. Purchase values are summed only when complete and in one currency.
| Insider | Transaction activity | Purchase value | Latest trade | Details | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Anthony FormanCEO / chair | 1 buy · 0 sell | 31.1k GBP | 2026-10-28 | View transactions · 1
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kevin Lyons-TarrCEO / chair | 0 buy · 0 sell | No purchases | 2026-05-15 | View transactions · 1
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Michelle BrukwickiCFO | 0 buy · 0 sell | No purchases | 2026-06-04 | View transactions · 2
|
INSIDER SIGNAL
Score breakdown：43.3 / 100
1 insiders · 1 purchase events · €37k net purchases
Europe #989 · United Kingdom #270
WHY THIS SIGNAL?
Score anatomy
Each bar is that part's points in the score; the five parts add up to the score.
Number of buyers+10.5 / 35
How many different insiders bought within 15 days
Amount bought+17.1 / 25
The value bought, net of any insider sales
Buyers' roles+0.0 / 20
Lower in the company scores higher: in the backtest, purchases by the most senior insiders did worse
How recent+5.7 / 10
How long ago the latest purchase took place
Buying against selling+10.0 / 10
Lower when insiders also sold
What is holding the score back?
- ⚠ Few buyers · fewer than 4 different insiders
- ⚠ Buyers' roles add little · most senior buyer: CEO / chair; the most senior score lowest
- ⚠ The latest purchase was some time ago
Buyers' roles follow the European ranking's order of roles: the most senior insiders score lowest.
Buying concentration
100%
Largest buyer：Paul Anthony Forman · 31k GBP
Purchases counted, before sales：31k GBP
The amount at the top of the page is purchases minus sales; this one counts purchases only, in the filing currency, so the two can differ. The score counts how many people bought; this shows separately who bought the most.
This is a ranking under the current European screening rules—not a probability of gain, return forecast, or buy recommendation.
Key purchase quotes (filing currency)
| Filer | Price per unit | Trade date |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Anthony Forman | 44.45 GBP | Oct 28, 2026 |
Model details
Cluster breakdown (does not change the score)
- 15-day buyer breadth (count)
- 1 distinct reported filers
- Peak time window
- 2026-10-28 to 2026-10-28
- Current breadth input
- 0.300 (capped at 4+ buyers)
- Buyer independence
- Not yet measured; related-party fields are not cross-market comparable
What the filings show
- 🟢 Latest purchase counted
Paul Anthony Forman · 31k GBP · Price 44.45 GBP · Oct 28, 2026 - 🔴 3 other line(s) are not counted, as they are not purchases the insider chose to make; 0 have a price of zero
Filing and data quality
These checks are auditable context; they do not change the rank or score.
- Identity match
- PASS · isin
- Ticker / ISIN
- Present
- Filing source links
- 6 / 6
- Median disclosure lag
- 0 days
- Latest disclosure age
- 8 days at snapshot
- Corrections / revisions
- 0
- Score-factor detail
- Saved
Insider timeline
One insider bought, once (28 Oct). The share closed at 4,472.00 that day and at 4,520.00 most recently (+1.1%).
Tap an item for what it means.
●A purchase: the bigger the dot, the more was bought
Each dot is one insider's purchases on one day. The dot's area follows the amount: the largest purchase here gets the largest dot. Hold the pointer over a dot to see the date and the amount.
Blue line: this share's price, +20.9% over these six months
The closing price of each day, from 3,738.00 on 2026-05-11 to 4,520.00 on 2026-11-04. The line has no scale; read it for high and low: a dot on a low stretch was bought cheaply, a dot on a high stretch was not.
Dashed line: the typical stock on the same exchange, +2.9%
Taken from the 807 other stocks on the same exchange that this site holds prices for. Each is measured from the first day of the window, and every day the middle one is drawn. It starts where the blue line starts, so the gap between the two is the difference: this share +20.9%, the typical one +2.9%, 18.0 points ahead. It is not an index and not a comparison within one industry.
▂Grey bars: companies across Europe disclosing purchases each week
A taller bar is a week in which more companies disclosed insider purchases.
This company: insiders buying per month, last 12 months
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
1Oct
Nov
Darker bars are inside the 180-day window above.
Who traded
| Insider | Role | Purchases | Sales | Bought | First purchase | Share price since | Earlier purchases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Anthony Forman | CEO / chair | 1 | — | 31.1k GBP | 2026-10-28 | +1.1% | fewer than 5 completed |
Insiders' buying price vs the latest close
Insiders paid 44.45 GBP a share on average (1 purchase line, 1 buyer, 2026-10-28 – 2026-10-28). The close on 2026-11-04 was 1.7% above that price.
Prices paid are weighted by shares and taken from the filings; dividends are not counted. Not scored.
Buying size vs market trading
0.12% · of estimated traded value in the same period
2026-10-08 – 2026-11-04 · 20 recorded trading sessions
- Disclosed qualifying purchases
- 31,115 GBP
- Estimated market traded value
- 26,326,704 GBP
Market-data coverage: 512 verified sessions · Latest session: 2026-11-04 · Ratio status: Available
Recent and largest purchase events / preceding 60-session ADTV
- Oct 28 · Paul Anthony Forman · PDMR – Non-Executive Chair31,115 GBP · 1.34%2,322,963 GBP ADTV
Traded value is estimated as close × shares traded, in major currency units. Includes disclosed qualifying purchases; disclosures may lag. Contractual or planned acquisitions are not necessarily discretionary. Ratios describe relative trading size, not market participation or score contributions.
Sector context
- Buying breadth
- 7.9% (20 / 252 issuers)
- Sector rank
- #8 / 12
- 7D breadth change
- -2.1 pp · vs 2026-10-29 (7d)
- 30D breadth change
- -4.4 pp · vs 2026-10-06 (30d)
This is sector-level research context. It does not affect the Insider Signal or ranking.
Insider profile outcomes
Historical performance following insider filings. The company role is translated below each name while preserving the original title.
- Excess return = stock return − FTSE 100 return over the same period.
- Hit rate = completed events with positive excess return ÷ total completed events.
- Price coverage = valid point-in-time prices ÷ events mature enough for that period.
- Returns start on the first shared trading session on or after publication.
- Small-sample rule: n<5 is shown for transparency and is not scored.
Events are disclosure-level observations; related disclosures published on the same date may share a return path and may not be statistically independent. This research enrichment does not affect the insider score or ranking.
| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 0.0% (0/1) | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| 20D | 0No data | Awaiting maturity | — | — | — | — |
| 60D | 0No data | Awaiting maturity | — | — | — | — |
| 120D | 0No data | Awaiting maturity | — | — | — | — |
Market context
PRICE PERFORMANCE
VOLATILITY & LIQUIDITY
- Volatility
- 38.7%
- Beta
- 0.70
- Avg daily volume
- £2.2M
- 20-session drawdown
- -5.2%
- 60-session drawdown
- -10.5%
- Latest volume / prior median
- 1.2×
VALUATION
- Market cap
- £1.3B
- Market cap (EUR ref.)
- €1.5B
- P/E
- 16.5×
FUNDAMENTALS
- Revenue
- —
- Net income
- —
- Operating profit
- —
- Equity
- —
- Cash
- —
- Debt
- —
- Operating cash flow
- —
- Free cash flow
- —
- Profit margin
- 7.5%
- ROE
- 70.1%
- Industry
- Advertising Agencies
Prices to 04 Nov 2026: price cache (yfinance). From OpenBB/yfinance, captured 29 Oct 2026: Market cap, P/E, Profit margin, ROE, Beta, Industry. ECB EUR reference rate dated 2026-11-05; it is not a trade-date conversion. It does not affect the insider score or rank.
Dividends
- Dividend yield
- 4.0%at 4,478.00p
- Last 12 months
- 178.80pper share
- Payout ratio
- 67%of 12-month earnings
- Latest ex-dividend
- 2026-08-1359.40p
- Frequency
- Twice a year
- Dividend growth
- +88.8%a year, 2022–2025
- By year
By year
| Year | Payments | Cash per share |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 2 | 178.80p |
| 2025 | 2 | 377.10p |
| 2024 | 2 | 179.70p |
| 2023 | 2 | 315.41p |
| 2022 | 2 | 56.00p |
Yahoo Finance: cash dividends by ex-dividend date, the latest close, the payout ratio (dividends ÷ 12-month earnings per share) and announced dates; special dividends included, stock dividends and splits not. Not part of any score.
Disclosed net short positions
- Aggregate net short
- 0.20%
- Latest position date
- 14 Oct 2026
The FCA publishes one aggregate figure per issuer, the sum of all positions notified to it, and does not name the holders. Source: FCA · read 06 Nov 2026
Short-position disclosures are external context; they do not affect the insider score, ranking, or filing eligibility.
Insiders and institutions
Insiders, ranking window: €37.3k net bought · buyers: 1 · last 2026-10-28
Short sellers
- Sum of published positions
- 0.20%register total
- Change, about 4 weeks
- +0.00 ppfrom 0.20% on 2026-10-16
- Change, about 12 weeks
- −0.07 ppfrom 0.27% on 2026-08-21
- Published short, 6 months
- line: insiders' last purchase
The published short positions changed little while insiders bought.
Source: FCA, read 2026-11-06. Where holders are named, only positions of 0.5% of issued capital or more are published, so these are lower bounds and a change is a change in what was published. Context only; not part of the score. All companies where insiders buy and short sellers hold positions →
Major holders (3% and above)
| Holder | Voting rights | Notified | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc. · large asset manager | 7.13% | 2026-02-09 | +0.31 pp |
| Aggregate of abrdn plc affiliated investment management entities with delegated voting rights on behalf of multiple managed portfolios | 5.00% | 2024-04-30 | −0.36 pp |
| FMR LLC | 4.97% | 2026-06-26 | −0.05 pp |
Holders that notified a higher stake in the last 12 months: 1; a lower one: 1 (banks and brokers left out).
Source: FCA (TR-1). A holder must notify when its voting rights cross 3% and every whole percent above it; within a percent a holding can change without a notice. Banks and brokers often hold shares to hedge clients' trades; the largest asset managers' stakes are mostly index money. Context only; not part of the score.
Latest news
No news has been captured for this company.
Regulatory filings
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-10-28 · trade date 2026-10-28
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-06-04 · trade date 2026-06-04
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-05-15 · trade date 2026-05-15
Unfold all 4 filings
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-10-28 · trade date 2026-10-28
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-06-04 · trade date 2026-06-04
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-05-15 · trade date 2026-05-15
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-03-25 · trade date 2026-03-25
Filing evidence
These are underlying national-feed records from the 365-day window ending on the saved ranking snapshot. The score uses only the latest 180 days; older qualifying equity purchases remain visible for audit but do not enter the current score. The original filer, role, transaction classification, instrument, price, volume, value and source fields are retained. The first three rows are shown; remaining records can be unfolded for audit. Other transaction types are retained but excluded from the score.
Excluded transactions & classification
1 qualifying purchase disclosure(s) · 1 transaction line(s)
Trade Oct 28, 2026Purchase of ordinary shares
Paul Anthony Forman · PDMR – Non-Executive Chair
Published Oct 28, 2026 · Identification code: · 700 shares × 44.45 GBP · —
Open filingShowing 1 of 1 matching raw-feed row(s) from the current 365-day research window. Prices and reported values remain in the filing currency and its major unit (for example, UK pence are parsed as GBP). The screen-level € aggregate is separately FX-normalised for research ranking, not a trade-date conversion.
Other disclosed transactions · excluded from score
View 5 other transaction(s)
Trade Jun 4, 2026Vesting of s hare awards under the 4imprint Long Term Incentive Plan
Michelle Brukwicki · Chief Financial Officer
Published Jun 4, 2026 · Identification code: · 9371 shares × — · —
Open filingTrade May 15, 2026Grant of share options under the 4imprint Employee Stock Purchase Plan 2022 with an option price per share of $40.35
Kevin Lyons-Tarr · Chief Executive Officer
Published May 15, 2026 · Identification code: · 423 shares × — · —
Open filingTrade May 15, 2026Grant of share options under the 4imprint Employee Stock Purchase Plan 2022 with an option price per share of $40.35
Michelle Brukwicki · Chief Financial Officer
Published May 15, 2026 · Identification code: · 282 shares × — · —
Open filingUnfold all 2 remaining filing row(s)
| Transaction date | Published | Filer | Role | Transaction | Instrument | Price (local currency) | Quote currency | Volume | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | 2026-03-25 | Kevin Lyons-Tarr | Chief Executive Officer | Grant of conditional award of shares under the 4imprint Deferred Bonus Plan 2021 | Identification code: | — | GBP | 1639 | Open filing |
| 2026-03-25 | 2026-03-25 | Michelle Brukwicki | Chief Financial Officer | Grant of conditional award of shares under the 4imprint Deferred Bonus Plan 2021 | Identification code: | — | GBP | 908 | Open filing |
Showing 5 of 5 matching raw-feed row(s) from the current 365-day research window. Prices and reported values remain in the filing currency and its major unit (for example, UK pence are parsed as GBP). The screen-level € aggregate is separately FX-normalised for research ranking, not a trade-date conversion.
Follow new disclosures
Subscribe to new Europe disclosures. These are market-wide RSS feeds, not company-specific alerts.
Model & Sources
Signal history
43.3 / 100
Latest recorded score
↓ -4.3 ptssince the first recorded snapshot on 2026-10-28; 8 calendar days observed
- Recorded snapshots
- 5
- First snapshot
- 2026-10-28
There is not yet a 30-calendar-day comparison; earlier scores are not reconstructed. These are raw signal scores saved when each full scoring run completed. They describe changes in research ranking, not price performance or returns.
Why did it change?
Less than 30 days of comparable history is available, so factor movement is not yet decomposed.
Signal score history
Fixed 0–100 scale; dates are spaced by calendar time.
Recent recorded points
- 47.6
- 46.9
- 44.6
- 43.7
- 43.3
View all recorded scores
| Snapshot date | Signal score |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 47.6 |
| 2026-10-29 | 46.9 |
| 2026-11-03 | 44.6 |
| 2026-11-04 | 43.7 |
| 2026-11-05 | 43.3 |
Why this score? · Model details
Priority = 100 × Σ(fixed weight × 0–1 rule-based input)
| Factor | Weight | This company input | Point contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15-day buyer breadth (count) | 35% | 0.300 | 10.5 |
| Qualified-buy size | 25% | 0.682 | 17.1 |
| Role informativeness (inverted) | 20% | 0.000 | 0.0 |
| Recency | 10% | 0.574 | 5.7 |
| Buy/sell conviction | 10% | 1.000 | 10.0 |
This is a heuristic ordering under the current rules, not a calibrated return forecast. It explains why candidates rank differently; the public-filing evidence and data limits are shown below.
Snapshot & identity
- Snapshot date
- 2026-11-05
- Ticker
- FOUR.L
- ISIN
- GB0006640972
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Advertising Agencies
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