Stock Trading Canary
| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 4Small sample | 100.0% (4/4) | 100.0% (4/4) | +5.8% | +7.9% | +2.2% |
| 20D | 4Small sample | 100.0% (4/4) | 75.0% (3/4) | +11.5% | +9.4% | -3.5% |
| 60D | 4Small sample | 100.0% (4/4) | 100.0% (4/4) | +5.4% | +9.9% | +0.6% |
| 120D | 3Small sample | 100.0% (3/3) | 33.3% (1/3) | -1.3% | +24.7% | -3.3% |
COMPANY RESEARCH
Duke Capital Limited
DUKE.L · United Kingdom · Financial Services · Asset Management
Insider Signal
Snapshot: 05 Nov 2026 · 180-day research window
- Insider Signal
- 67.8 / 100 Research score, not a buy recommendation
- Reported buyers
- 3 180-day scoring window
- Net purchases
- 157.0k EUR 180 days · purchases less sales
- Latest disclosure
- 2026-11-03 Publication date
What stands out
- 3 reported buyers participated in qualifying purchases during the last 180 days.
Price vs insider buying
DUKE.L · GBp● Purchase × Sale ◇ Public disclosure ▥ 15-day cluster ·
Circles and crosses mark trade dates; diamonds below the axis mark later public disclosures. The trade became public on its disclosure date. Prices are nearest-session closes, not insider execution prices. Marker sizes are not compared when values or currencies differ.
BULL VS BEAR
Two readings of this buying
The same filings, read two ways. Each line is a fact stored for this company with the number behind it, and appears only when that number crosses a fixed threshold. Neither side is a forecast and no winner is declared.
All bull and bear lists, and what followed each line in the past →
Where the evidence comes from
The two kinds of evidence disagree: the purchases themselves carry bull lines (several insiders together, more buyers than usual here, large purchases, senior executive buying, bought in the last two weeks), while share price and trading argue against (price down over six months, price trails its sector).
- The insider purchases themselvesBullseveral insiders together, more buyers than usual here, large purchases, senior executive buying, bought in the last two weeks3 checked, under the threshold · 3 missing
- Share price and tradingBearprice down over six months, price trails its sector1 checked, under the threshold
- Short sellers1 checked, under the threshold
- Company results1 checked, under the threshold · 1 missing
- Company actions1 checked, under the threshold
Bull case · the buying is informative
- 3 insiders bought on the same day (2026-11-03). Several people reaching the same decision at the same time is hard to put down to one person's circumstances.Record: after 5,440 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −3.5%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−3.4%).
- 3 insiders bought in the last 180 days against 1 in the 180 days before: more than this company's own recent norm.Record: after 3,282 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −2.5%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−2.7%).
- Net purchases of €157k equal 0.13% of the company's market value (€122.6M): large for the size of the business.
- The buyers include the CEO or chair, who sees more of the business than most filers. This site's score gives little or no credit for that: in its backtests purchases by senior executives did no better than other insiders' purchases.Record: after 8,812 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −3.1%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−3.4%).
- The latest purchase is 2 days old (2026-11-03). The buying is current, not left over from an earlier quarter.
Bear case · discount it
- Share price and tradingThe share price is down 22% over six months (three months −27%, one month −22%) and stands 32% below its 52-week high. Insiders have bought into a fall the market has not reversed.Record (nearest stored case: price 20% or more below its prior 52-week high): after 11,069 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −3.1%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−2.6%).
- Share price and tradingOver three months the share price changed −27% and the median of 385 Financial Services companies changed −1.7%: 26 points behind. The market has marked this company down against its own sector.
Evidence still missing
- No buyer here has 5 or more completed earlier purchases on record, so there is no track record to weigh.
- Only one reading of profitability is held (profit margin 46%). Whether earnings and cash flow are rising or falling needs the last two reports side by side.
- European notifications have no field saying whether a purchase was pre-arranged; there is no counterpart to the US 10b5-1 box. None of the 3 purchase lines mentions a plan, but a bare “Purchase of ordinary shares” does not rule one out.
- The filings give the size of each trade, not what the buyer already held. Whether a purchase added 1% to a personal stake or doubled it is not known.
Checked and under the threshold: 7
- BearThe largest buyer accounts for 49% of the value bought. Counted for the bear side from 80%.
- Bear0 of 3 buyers filed as a person closely associated with a manager. Counted for the bear side from half.
- BearNo insider sale is recorded in the same 180 days.
- BearThe register of FCA shows no published net short position in this company.
- BullThe company announced no transaction in its own shares in the last 30 days.
- BearProfit margin on the latest captured figures is 46%. Counted for the bear side when negative.
- BearAbout €931k of the stock changes hands on an average day. Counted for the bear side below €500k.
Both columns arrange stored facts only. They do not change the insider score or the ranking and are not investment advice.
Who is trading?
Named filings in 180 days. Purchase values are summed only when complete and in one currency.
| Insider | Transaction activity | Purchase value | Latest trade | Details | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil JohnsonCEO / chair | 1 buy · 0 sell | 64.2k GBP | 2026-11-03 | View transactions · 4
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Arlington Asset Management LimitedAssociated person | 1 buy · 0 sell | 33.5k GBP | 2026-11-03 | View transactions · 1
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Charlie Cannon BrookesExecutive | 1 buy · 0 sell | 33.3k GBP | 2026-11-03 | View transactions · 3
|
INSIDER SIGNAL
Score breakdown：67.8 / 100
3 insiders · 3 purchase events · €157k net purchases
Europe #97 · United Kingdom #22
WHY THIS SIGNAL?
Score anatomy
Each bar is that part's points in the score; the five parts add up to the score.
Number of buyers+29.8 / 35
How many different insiders bought within 15 days
Amount bought+19.4 / 25
The value bought, net of any insider sales
Buyers' roles+0.0 / 20
Lower in the company scores higher: in the backtest, purchases by the most senior insiders did worse
How recent+8.7 / 10
How long ago the latest purchase took place
Buying against selling+10.0 / 10
Lower when insiders also sold
What is holding the score back?
- ⚠ Buyers' roles add little · most senior buyer: CEO / chair; the most senior score lowest
- ✓ Many buyers · 4 or more different insiders
- ✓ Recent buying · latest purchase 2026-11-03
Buyers' roles follow the European ranking's order of roles: the most senior insiders score lowest.
Buying concentration
49%
Largest buyer：Neil Johnson · 64k GBP
Purchases counted, before sales：131k GBP
The amount at the top of the page is purchases minus sales; this one counts purchases only, in the filing currency, so the two can differ. The score counts how many people bought; this shows separately who bought the most.
This is a ranking under the current European screening rules—not a probability of gain, return forecast, or buy recommendation.
Key purchase quotes (filing currency)
| Filer | Price per unit | Trade date |
|---|---|---|
| Neil Johnson | 0.18332 GBP | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Arlington Asset Management Limited | 0.184 GBP | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Charlie Cannon Brookes | 0.184 GBP | Nov 3, 2026 |
Model details
Cluster breakdown (does not change the score)
- 15-day buyer breadth (count)
- 3 distinct reported filers
- Peak time window
- 2026-11-03 to 2026-11-03
- Current breadth input
- 0.850 (capped at 4+ buyers)
- Buyer independence
- Not yet measured; related-party fields are not cross-market comparable
What the filings show
- 🟢 Latest purchase counted
Neil Johnson · 64k GBP · Price 0.18332 GBP · Nov 3, 2026 - 🟢 Purchase by a manager or director
Arlington Asset Management Limited · 33k GBP · Price 0.184 GBP · Nov 3, 2026 - 🟢 Purchase by a manager or director
Charlie Cannon Brookes · 33k GBP · Price 0.184 GBP · Nov 3, 2026 - 🔴 5 other line(s) are not counted, as they are not purchases the insider chose to make; 0 have a price of zero
Filing and data quality
These checks are auditable context; they do not change the rank or score.
- Identity match
- PASS · isin
- Ticker / ISIN
- Present
- Filing source links
- 9 / 9
- Median disclosure lag
- 0 days
- Latest disclosure age
- 2 days at snapshot
- Corrections / revisions
- 0
- Score-factor detail
- Saved
Insider timeline
3 insiders bought on the same day, 3 Nov: 1 Associated person, 1 Executive, 1 CEO / chair. The share closed at 20.00 that day and at 20.25 most recently (+1.2%). That week 107 companies across Europe disclosed insider purchases, an ordinary week (26 of the last 26).
Tap an item for what it means.
●A purchase: the bigger the dot, the more was bought
Each dot is one insider's purchases on one day. The dot's area follows the amount: the largest purchase here gets the largest dot. Hold the pointer over a dot to see the date and the amount.
▮Purple band: several insiders bought within 15 days
The band marks the stretch with the most different buyers: at most 15 days long and at least two people. Here it is 3 Nov, with 3 insiders. Only the strongest stretch is marked. Several people deciding the same thing is harder to explain by one person's private reasons, but insiders often buy together just after a closed period ends, so compare it with the grey weekly bars.
Blue line: this share's price, −19.8% over these six months
The closing price of each day, from 25.25 on 2026-05-11 to 20.25 on 2026-11-04. The line has no scale; read it for high and low: a dot on a low stretch was bought cheaply, a dot on a high stretch was not.
Dashed line: the typical stock on the same exchange, +2.9%
Taken from the 807 other stocks on the same exchange that this site holds prices for. Each is measured from the first day of the window, and every day the middle one is drawn. It starts where the blue line starts, so the gap between the two is the difference: this share −19.8%, the typical one +2.9%, 22.7 points behind. It is not an index and not a comparison within one industry.
▂Grey bars: companies across Europe disclosing purchases each week
A taller bar is a week in which more companies disclosed insider purchases. The purple bar is the week of the band above: 107 companies, number 26 of the last 26 weeks. If that week was a peak anyway, buying together is less special than it looks.
This company: insiders buying per month, last 12 months
Dec
1Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
3Nov
Darker bars are inside the 180-day window above.
Who traded
| Insider | Role | Purchases | Sales | Bought | First purchase | Share price since | Earlier purchases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Cannon Brookes | Executive | 1 | — | 33.3k GBP | 2026-11-03 | +1.2% | fewer than 5 completed |
| Neil Johnson | CEO / chair | 1 | — | 64.2k GBP | 2026-11-03 | +1.2% | fewer than 5 completed |
| Arlington Asset Management Limited | Associated person | 1 | — | 33.5k GBP | 2026-11-03 | +1.2% | fewer than 5 completed |
Insiders' buying price vs the latest close
Insiders paid 0.2300 GBP a share on average (4 purchase lines, 3 buyers, 2026-01-26 – 2026-11-03). The close on 2026-11-04 was 12.0% below that price.
The latest purchase (2026-11-03) was at 0.1837 GBP; the close was 10.3% above that price.
Prices paid are weighted by shares and taken from the filings; dividends are not counted. Not scored.
Buying size vs market trading
0.84% · of estimated traded value in the same period
2026-10-08 – 2026-11-04 · 20 recorded trading sessions
- Disclosed qualifying purchases
- 130,927 GBP
- Estimated market traded value
- 15,522,208 GBP
Market-data coverage: 507 verified sessions · Latest session: 2026-11-04 · Ratio status: Available
Recent and largest purchase events / preceding 60-session ADTV
- Nov 03 · Arlington Asset Management Limited · PCA of Charlie Cannon Brookes, Chief Investment Officer33,455 GBP · 8.22%407,092 GBP ADTV
- Nov 03 · Charlie Cannon Brookes · Chief Investment Officer33,310 GBP · 8.18%407,092 GBP ADTV
- Nov 03 · Neil Johnson · Chief Executive Officer64,162 GBP · 15.76%407,092 GBP ADTV
Traded value is estimated as close × shares traded, in major currency units. Includes disclosed qualifying purchases; disclosures may lag. Contractual or planned acquisitions are not necessarily discretionary. Ratios describe relative trading size, not market participation or score contributions.
Sector context
- Buying breadth
- 11.8% (78 / 663 issuers)
- Sector rank
- #1 / 12
- 7D breadth change
- +0.7 pp · vs 2026-10-29 (7d)
- 30D breadth change
- History building
This is sector-level research context. It does not affect the Insider Signal or ranking.
Insider profile outcomes
Historical performance following insider filings. The company role is translated below each name while preserving the original title.
- Excess return = stock return − FTSE 100 return over the same period.
- Hit rate = completed events with positive excess return ÷ total completed events.
- Price coverage = valid point-in-time prices ÷ events mature enough for that period.
- Returns start on the first shared trading session on or after publication.
- Small-sample rule: n<5 is shown for transparency and is not scored.
Events are disclosure-level observations; related disclosures published on the same date may share a return path and may not be statistically independent. This research enrichment does not affect the insider score or ranking.
| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 0.0% (0/1) | -3.7% | -3.7% | -3.7% |
| 20D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 0.0% (0/1) | -5.1% | -5.1% | -5.1% |
| 60D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 0.0% (0/1) | -6.9% | -6.9% | -6.9% |
| 120D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 0.0% (0/1) | -6.2% | -6.2% | -6.2% |
| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 100.0% (1/1) | +2.2% | +2.2% | +2.2% |
| 20D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 100.0% (1/1) | +9.0% | +9.0% | +9.0% |
| 60D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 100.0% (1/1) | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.6% |
| 120D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 0.0% (0/1) | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.3% |
Market context
PRICE PERFORMANCE
VOLATILITY & LIQUIDITY
- Volatility
- 27.9%
- Beta
- 0.42
- Avg daily volume
- £358,180.0
- 20-session drawdown
- -31.2%
- 60-session drawdown
- -35.4%
- Latest volume / prior median
- 0.9×
VALUATION
- Market cap
- £102.2M
- Market cap (EUR ref.)
- €122.6M
- P/E
- 10.1×
FUNDAMENTALS
- Revenue
- —
- Net income
- —
- Operating profit
- —
- Equity
- —
- Cash
- —
- Debt
- —
- Operating cash flow
- —
- Free cash flow
- —
- Profit margin
- 46.2%
- ROE
- 6.2%
- Industry
- Asset Management
Prices to 05 Nov 2026: OpenBB/yfinance. From OpenBB/yfinance, captured 05 Nov 2026: Market cap, P/E, Profit margin, ROE, Beta, Industry. ECB EUR reference rate dated 2026-11-05; it is not a trade-date conversion. It does not affect the insider score or rank.
Disclosed net short positions
The FCA register, read 06 Nov 2026, publishes no aggregate net short position for this issuer.
Short-position disclosures are external context; they do not affect the insider score, ranking, or filing eligibility.
Insiders and institutions
Insiders, ranking window: €157.0k net bought · buyers: 3 · last 2026-11-03
Short sellers
Nothing at or above the publication threshold is on the FCA register (read 2026-11-06).
Source: FCA, read 2026-11-06. Where holders are named, only positions of 0.5% of issued capital or more are published, so these are lower bounds and a change is a change in what was published. Context only; not part of the score. All companies where insiders buy and short sellers hold positions →
Major holders (3% and above)
| Holder | Voting rights | Notified | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gresham House Asset Management Ltd | 6.37% | 2022-08-30 | — |
| Premier Miton Group plc | 4.91% | 2021-12-22 | −1.68 pp |
| CANACCORD GENUITY GROUP INC | 4.76% | 2022-08-25 | −4.42 pp |
No holder other than banks and brokers notified a change in the last 12 months.
Source: FCA (TR-1). A holder must notify when its voting rights cross 3% and every whole percent above it; within a percent a holding can change without a notice. Banks and brokers often hold shares to hedge clients' trades; the largest asset managers' stakes are mostly index money. Context only; not part of the score.
Latest news
No news has been captured for this company.
Regulatory filings
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-11-03 · trade date 2026-11-03
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-08-17 · trade date 2026-08-17
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-01-26 · trade date 2026-01-26
Filing evidence
These are underlying national-feed records from the 365-day window ending on the saved ranking snapshot. The score uses only the latest 180 days; older qualifying equity purchases remain visible for audit but do not enter the current score. The original filer, role, transaction classification, instrument, price, volume, value and source fields are retained. The first three rows are shown; remaining records can be unfolded for audit. Other transaction types are retained but excluded from the score.
Excluded transactions & classification
4 qualifying purchase disclosure(s) · 4 transaction line(s)
Trade Nov 3, 2026Purchase of ordinary shares
Neil Johnson · Chief Executive Officer
Published Nov 3, 2026 · Ordinary shares of nil par value GG00BYZSSY63 · 350000 shares × 0.18332 GBP · —
Open filingTrade Nov 3, 2026Purchase of ordinary shares
Charlie Cannon Brookes · Chief Investment Officer
Published Nov 3, 2026 · Ordinary shares of nil par value GG00BYZSSY63 · 181033 shares × 0.184 GBP · —
Open filingTrade Nov 3, 2026Purchase of ordinary shares
Arlington Asset Management Limited · PCA of Charlie Cannon Brookes, Chief Investment Officer
Published Nov 3, 2026 · Ordinary shares of nil par value GG00BYZSSY63 · 181819 shares × 0.184 GBP · —
Open filingUnfold all 1 remaining filing row(s)
| Transaction date | Published | Filer | Role | Transaction | Instrument | Price (local currency) | Quote currency | Volume | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-01-26 | Charlie Cannon Brookes | Chief Investment Officer | Purchase of ordinary shares | Ordinary shares of nil par value GG00BYZSSY63 | 0.2707 GBP | GBP | 811779 | Open filing |
Showing 4 of 4 matching raw-feed row(s) from the current 365-day research window. Prices and reported values remain in the filing currency and its major unit (for example, UK pence are parsed as GBP). The screen-level € aggregate is separately FX-normalised for research ranking, not a trade-date conversion.
Other disclosed transactions · excluded from score
View 5 other transaction(s)
Trade Aug 17, 2026Grant of conditional performance share awards under LTIP
Neil Johnson · Chief Executive Officer
Published Aug 17, 2026 · Ordinary shares of nil par value GG00BYZSSY63 · 1222000 shares × — · —
Open filingTrade Aug 17, 2026Acquisition of ordinary shares following vesting of conditional performance share awards under LTIP
Neil Johnson · Chief Executive Officer
Published Aug 17, 2026 · Ordinary shares of nil par value GG00BYZSSY63 · 329555 shares × — · —
Open filingTrade Aug 17, 2026Sale of ordinary shares following vesting of conditional performance share awards under LTIP to cover tax liability
Neil Johnson · Chief Executive Officer
Published Aug 17, 2026 · Ordinary shares of nil par value GG00BYZSSY63 · 150000 shares × 0.2755 GBP · —
Open filingUnfold all 2 remaining filing row(s)
| Transaction date | Published | Filer | Role | Transaction | Instrument | Price (local currency) | Quote currency | Volume | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | 2026-08-17 | Charlie Cannon Brookes | Chief Investment Officer | Grant of conditional performance share awards under LTIP | Ordinary shares of nil par value GG00BYZSSY63 | — | GBP | 1222000 | Open filing |
| 2026-08-17 | 2026-08-17 | Charlie Cannon Brookes | Chief Investment Officer | Acquisition of ordinary shares following vesting of conditional performance share awards under LTIP | Ordinary shares of nil par value GG00BYZSSY63 | — | GBP | 318967 | Open filing |
Showing 5 of 5 matching raw-feed row(s) from the current 365-day research window. Prices and reported values remain in the filing currency and its major unit (for example, UK pence are parsed as GBP). The screen-level € aggregate is separately FX-normalised for research ranking, not a trade-date conversion.
Follow new disclosures
Subscribe to new Europe disclosures. These are market-wide RSS feeds, not company-specific alerts.
Model & Sources
Signal history
67.8 / 100
Latest recorded score
↓ -0.7 ptssince the first recorded snapshot on 2026-11-04; 1 calendar days observed
- Recorded snapshots
- 2
- First snapshot
- 2026-11-04
There is not yet a 30-calendar-day comparison; earlier scores are not reconstructed. These are raw signal scores saved when each full scoring run completed. They describe changes in research ranking, not price performance or returns.
Why did it change?
Less than 30 days of comparable history is available, so factor movement is not yet decomposed.
Signal score history
Fixed 0–100 scale; dates are spaced by calendar time.
Recent recorded points
- 68.5
- 67.8
View all recorded scores
| Snapshot date | Signal score |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 68.5 |
| 2026-11-05 | 67.8 |
Why this score? · Model details
Priority = 100 × Σ(fixed weight × 0–1 rule-based input)
| Factor | Weight | This company input | Point contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15-day buyer breadth (count) | 35% | 0.850 | 29.8 |
| Qualified-buy size | 25% | 0.776 | 19.4 |
| Role informativeness (inverted) | 20% | 0.000 | 0.0 |
| Recency | 10% | 0.871 | 8.7 |
| Buy/sell conviction | 10% | 1.000 | 10.0 |
This is a heuristic ordering under the current rules, not a calibrated return forecast. It explains why candidates rank differently; the public-filing evidence and data limits are shown below.
Snapshot & identity
- Snapshot date
- 2026-11-05
- Ticker
- DUKE.L
- ISIN
- GG00BYZSSY63
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Asset Management
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