Stock Trading Canary
| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 100.0% (1/1) | +3.6% | +3.6% | +3.6% |
| 20D | 0No data | Awaiting maturity | — | — | — | — |
| 60D | 0No data | Awaiting maturity | — | — | — | — |
| 120D | 0No data | Awaiting maturity | — | — | — | — |
COMPANY RESEARCH
Lenzing AG
LNZ.VI · Austria · Consumer Cyclical · Textile Manufacturing
Insider Signal
Snapshot: 05 Nov 2026 · 180-day research window
- Insider Signal
- 47.1 / 100 Research score, not a buy recommendation
- Reported buyers
- 1 180-day scoring window
- Net purchases
- 14.8k EUR 180 days · purchases less sales
- Latest disclosure
- 2026-10-23 Publication date
What stands out
- Christian Skilich accounts for 100% of comparable reported purchase value; buyer breadth and value are different measures.
- The share price fell 52.1% over 180 days; inspect disclosure dates before interpreting the purchases.
Price vs insider buying
LNZ.VI · EUR● Purchase × Sale ◇ Public disclosure ▥ 15-day cluster ·
Circles and crosses mark trade dates; diamonds below the axis mark later public disclosures. The trade became public on its disclosure date. Prices are nearest-session closes, not insider execution prices. Marker sizes are not compared when values or currencies differ.
BULL VS BEAR
Two readings of this buying
The same filings, read two ways. Each line is a fact stored for this company with the number behind it, and appears only when that number crosses a fixed threshold. Neither side is a forecast and no winner is declared.
Since 2026-11-03, neither column has changed. All bull and bear lists, and what followed each line in the past →
Where the evidence comes from
The two kinds of evidence disagree: the purchases themselves carry bull lines (bought in the last two weeks), while share price and trading argue against (price down over six months, price trails its sector); company results argue against (loss-making). No data is held for: short sellers, company actions.
- The insider purchases themselvesBullbought in the last two weeks Bearone buyer only, small purchases2 checked, under the threshold · 4 missing
- Share price and tradingBearprice down over six months, price trails its sector1 checked, under the threshold
- Short sellers1 missing
- Company resultsBearloss-making1 missing
- Company actionsno data held
Bull case · the buying is informative
- The latest purchase is 13 days old (2026-10-23). The buying is current, not left over from an earlier quarter.
Bear case · discount it
- Only one insider bought. A single purchase can reflect that person's own finances rather than a view on the company.Record: after 4,900 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −3.0%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−3.4%).
- Net purchases of €15k are <0.01% of the company's market value (€561.1M): a visible sum, a small one against the business.
- Company resultsThe company is loss-making on the latest captured figures: profit margin −7.1%, return on equity −11%.
- Share price and tradingThe share price is down 52% over six months (three months −53%, one month −16%). Insiders have bought into a fall the market has not reversed.Record (nearest stored case: price 20% or more below its prior 52-week high): after 11,069 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −3.1%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−2.6%).
- Share price and tradingOver three months the share price changed −53% and the median of 349 Consumer Cyclical companies changed −2.5%: 50 points behind. The market has marked this company down against its own sector.
Evidence still missing
- The latest purchase (2026-10-23) falls within 30 days before the next scheduled results (2026-11-05), normally a closed period. Either the dealing was cleared as an exception or the results date is wrong; the filing and the financial calendar show which.
- No buyer here has 5 or more completed earlier purchases on record, so there is no track record to weigh.
- Only one reading of profitability is held (profit margin −7.1%). Whether earnings and cash flow are rising or falling needs the last two reports side by side.
- The short-position register for this company's market is not captured here, so whether professional investors are positioned against the buying is not known.
- European notifications have no field saying whether a purchase was pre-arranged; there is no counterpart to the US 10b5-1 box. The one purchase line does not mention a plan, but a bare “Acquisition” does not rule one out.
- The filings give the size of each trade, not what the buyer already held. Whether a purchase added 1% to a personal stake or doubled it is not known.
Checked and under the threshold: 3
- Bear0 of 1 buyer filed as a person closely associated with a manager. Counted for the bear side from half.
- BearNo insider sale is recorded in the same 180 days.
- BearAbout €3.3M of the stock changes hands on an average day. Counted for the bear side below €500k.
Both columns arrange stored facts only. They do not change the insider score or the ranking and are not investment advice.
Who is trading?
Named filings in 180 days. Purchase values are summed only when complete and in one currency.
| Insider | Transaction activity | Purchase value | Latest trade | Details | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian SkilichBoard member | 1 buy · 0 sell | 14.8k EUR | 2026-10-23 | |||||||||||||||||
| Oberbank AGBoard member | 0 buy · 0 sell | No purchases | 2026-10-06 | View transactions · 1
|
INSIDER SIGNAL
Score breakdown：47.1 / 100
1 insiders · 1 purchase events · €15k net purchases
Europe #752 · Austria #5
WHY THIS SIGNAL?
Score anatomy
Each bar is that part's points in the score; the five parts add up to the score.
Number of buyers+10.5 / 35
How many different insiders bought within 15 days
Amount bought+15.6 / 25
The value bought, net of any insider sales
Buyers' roles+7.0 / 20
Lower in the company scores higher: in the backtest, purchases by the most senior insiders did worse
How recent+4.1 / 10
How long ago the latest purchase took place
Buying against selling+10.0 / 10
Lower when insiders also sold
What is holding the score back?
- ⚠ Few buyers · fewer than 4 different insiders
- ⚠ Buyers' roles add little · most senior buyer: Board member; the most senior score lowest
- ⚠ The latest purchase was some time ago
Buyers' roles follow the European ranking's order of roles: the most senior insiders score lowest.
Buying concentration
100%
Largest buyer：Christian Skilich · 15k EUR
Purchases counted, before sales：15k EUR
The amount at the top of the page is purchases minus sales; this one counts purchases only, in the filing currency, so the two can differ. The score counts how many people bought; this shows separately who bought the most.
This is a ranking under the current European screening rules—not a probability of gain, return forecast, or buy recommendation.
Key purchase quotes (filing currency)
| Filer | Price per unit | Trade date |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Skilich | 8.65 EUR | Oct 23, 2026 |
Model details
Cluster breakdown (does not change the score)
- 15-day buyer breadth (count)
- 1 distinct reported filers
- Peak time window
- 2026-10-23 to 2026-10-23
- Current breadth input
- 0.300 (capped at 4+ buyers)
- Buyer independence
- Not yet measured; related-party fields are not cross-market comparable
What the filings show
- 🟢 Latest purchase counted
Christian Skilich · 15k EUR · Price 8.65 EUR · Oct 23, 2026 - 🔴 2 other line(s) are not counted, as they are not purchases the insider chose to make; 2 have a price of zero
Filing and data quality
These checks are auditable context; they do not change the rank or score.
- Identity match
- PASS · isin
- Ticker / ISIN
- Present
- Filing source links
- 3 / 3
- Median disclosure lag
- 2 days
- Latest disclosure age
- 13 days at snapshot
- Corrections / revisions
- 0
- Score-factor detail
- Saved
Insider timeline
One insider bought, once (23 Oct). The share closed at 10.42 that day and at 11.48 most recently (+10.2%).
Tap an item for what it means.
●A purchase: the bigger the dot, the more was bought
Each dot is one insider's purchases on one day. The dot's area follows the amount: the largest purchase here gets the largest dot. Hold the pointer over a dot to see the date and the amount.
Blue line: this share's price, −52.1% over these six months
The closing price of each day, from 23.95 on 2026-05-11 to 11.48 on 2026-11-04. The line has no scale; read it for high and low: a dot on a low stretch was bought cheaply, a dot on a high stretch was not.
▂Grey bars: companies across Europe disclosing purchases each week
A taller bar is a week in which more companies disclosed insider purchases.
This company: insiders buying per month, last 12 months
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
1Oct
Nov
Darker bars are inside the 180-day window above.
Who traded
| Insider | Role | Purchases | Sales | Bought | First purchase | Share price since | Earlier purchases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Skilich | Board member | 1 | — | 14.8k EUR | 2026-10-23 | +10.2% | fewer than 5 completed |
Insiders' buying price vs the latest close
Insiders paid 8.65 EUR a share on average (1 purchase line, 1 buyer, 2026-10-23 – 2026-10-23). The close on 2026-11-04 was 32.7% above that price.
Prices paid are weighted by shares and taken from the filings; dividends are not counted. Not scored.
Buying size vs market trading
0.02% · of estimated traded value in the same period
2026-10-07 – 2026-11-04 · 20 recorded trading sessions
- Disclosed qualifying purchases
- 14,792 EUR
- Estimated market traded value
- 66,966,463 EUR
Market-data coverage: 511 verified sessions · Latest session: 2026-11-04 · Ratio status: Available
Recent and largest purchase events / preceding 60-session ADTV
- Oct 23 · Christian Skilich · Member of the managing body14,792 EUR · 0.82%1,798,960 EUR ADTV
Traded value is estimated as close × shares traded, in major currency units. Includes disclosed qualifying purchases; disclosures may lag. Contractual or planned acquisitions are not necessarily discretionary. Ratios describe relative trading size, not market participation or score contributions.
Sector context
- Buying breadth
- 8.2% (41 / 503 issuers)
- Sector rank
- #7 / 12
- 7D breadth change
- -0.6 pp · vs 2026-10-29 (7d)
- 30D breadth change
- -3.7 pp · vs 2026-10-06 (30d)
This is sector-level research context. It does not affect the Insider Signal or ranking.
Insider profile outcomes
Historical performance following insider filings. The company role is translated below each name while preserving the original title.
- Excess return = stock return − ATX return over the same period.
- Hit rate = completed events with positive excess return ÷ total completed events.
- Price coverage = valid point-in-time prices ÷ events mature enough for that period.
- Returns start on the first shared trading session on or after publication.
- Small-sample rule: n<5 is shown for transparency and is not scored.
Events are disclosure-level observations; related disclosures published on the same date may share a return path and may not be statistically independent. This research enrichment does not affect the insider score or ranking.
Market context
PRICE PERFORMANCE
VOLATILITY & LIQUIDITY
- Volatility
- 50.6%
- Beta
- 1.00
- Avg daily volume
- €1.7M
- 20-session drawdown
- -20.8%
- 60-session drawdown
- -58.7%
- Latest volume / prior median
- 1.1×
VALUATION
- Market cap
- €561.1M
- Market cap (EUR ref.)
- €561.1M
- P/E
- —
FUNDAMENTALS
- Revenue
- $2.6B
- Net income
- $-135.2M
- Operating profit
- —
- Equity
- $1.3B
- Cash
- —
- Debt
- —
- Operating cash flow
- —
- Free cash flow
- —
- Profit margin
- -7.1%
- ROE
- -11.0%
- Industry
- Textile Manufacturing
Prices to 04 Nov 2026: price cache (Yahoo Chart/risk profile, yfinance). From OpenBB/yfinance, captured 29 Oct 2026: Market cap, Profit margin, ROE, Beta, Industry. From the company's annual report ↗, fiscal year ended 31 Dec 2025: Revenue, Net income, Equity. ECB EUR reference rate dated 2026-11-05; it is not a trade-date conversion. It does not affect the insider score or rank.
Dividends
- Last 12 months
- None in 12 months
- Payout ratio
- —loss-making
- Latest ex-dividend
- 2022-04-28€2.80
- By year
By year
| Year | Payments | Cash per share |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | €2.80 |
Yahoo Finance: cash dividends by ex-dividend date, the latest close, the payout ratio (dividends ÷ 12-month earnings per share) and announced dates; special dividends included, stock dividends and splits not. Not part of any score.
Disclosed net short positions
This country's register of net short positions was not read for this build. That says nothing about whether short positions exist.
Insiders and institutions
Insiders, ranking window: €14.8k net bought · buyers: 1 · last 2026-10-23
Major holders (3% and above)
| Holder | Voting rights | Notified | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| a. Name: B&C Privatstiftung | 52.25% | 2024-08-23 | +0.00 pp |
| a. Name: Suzano Holding S.A. | 15.00% | 2024-06-11 | +15.00 pp |
| a. Name: The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. · bank or broker | 6.97% | 2022-04-11 | +0.00 pp |
| a. Name: NN Group N.V. | 6.27% | 2022-04-11 | +1.14 pp |
| Name City Country | 5.86% | 2026-10-23 | −46.39 pp |
| * Name: NN Group N.V. | 5.13% | 2021-03-09 | +1.11 pp |
| Bank of Montreal · bank or broker | 4.06% | 2020-01-28 | −0.07 pp |
| * Name: Impax Asset Management Group plc | 3.92% | 2021-03-01 | −0.10 pp |
Holders that notified a higher stake in the last 12 months: 0; a lower one: 1 (banks and brokers left out).
Source: OeKB. A holder must notify when its voting rights cross 4% (3% where the company's articles say so), 5%, 10% and further thresholds; between thresholds a holding can change without a notice, so a date can be old while the holding is not. Banks and brokers often hold shares to hedge clients' trades; the largest asset managers' stakes are mostly index money. Context only; not part of the score.
Latest news
News is reader context only; it does not change the score or inclusion.
Regulatory filings
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-10-23 · trade date 2026-10-23
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-10-08 · trade date 2026-10-06
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-10-08 · trade date 2026-10-06
Filing evidence
These are underlying national-feed records from the 365-day window ending on the saved ranking snapshot. The score uses only the latest 180 days; older qualifying equity purchases remain visible for audit but do not enter the current score. The original filer, role, transaction classification, instrument, price, volume, value and source fields are retained. The first three rows are shown; remaining records can be unfolded for audit. Other transaction types are retained but excluded from the score.
Excluded transactions & classification
1 qualifying purchase disclosure(s) · 1 transaction line(s)
Trade Oct 23, 2026Acquisition
Christian Skilich · Member of the managing body
Published Oct 23, 2026 · Share · 1710.0 shares × 8.65 EUR · —
Open filingShowing 1 of 1 matching raw-feed row(s) from the current 365-day research window. Prices and reported values remain in the filing currency and its major unit (for example, UK pence are parsed as GBP). The screen-level € aggregate is separately FX-normalised for research ranking, not a trade-date conversion.
Other disclosed transactions · excluded from score
View 2 other transaction(s)
Trade Oct 6, 2026Allocation of 1,493,524 pieces of subscription rights in the course of a cash capital increase
Oberbank AG · Member of the administrative or supervisory body
Published Oct 8, 2026 · Financial instrument linked to a share or a debt instrument · 1493524.0 shares × 0.0 EUR · —
Open filingTrade Oct 6, 2026Allocation of 1,710 pieces of subscription rights in the course of a cash capital increase
Christian Skilich · Member of the managing body
Published Oct 8, 2026 · Financial instrument linked to a share or a debt instrument · 1710.0 shares × 0.0 EUR · —
Open filingShowing 2 of 2 matching raw-feed row(s) from the current 365-day research window. Prices and reported values remain in the filing currency and its major unit (for example, UK pence are parsed as GBP). The screen-level € aggregate is separately FX-normalised for research ranking, not a trade-date conversion.
Follow new disclosures
Subscribe to new Europe disclosures. These are market-wide RSS feeds, not company-specific alerts.
Model & Sources
Signal history
47.1 / 100
Latest recorded score
↓ -10.5 ptssince the first recorded snapshot on 2026-10-23; 13 calendar days observed
- Recorded snapshots
- 7
- First snapshot
- 2026-10-23
There is not yet a 30-calendar-day comparison; earlier scores are not reconstructed. These are raw signal scores saved when each full scoring run completed. They describe changes in research ranking, not price performance or returns.
Why did it change?
Less than 30 days of comparable history is available, so factor movement is not yet decomposed.
Signal score history
Fixed 0–100 scale; dates are spaced by calendar time.
Recent recorded points
- 57.6
- 50.1
- 49.7
- 47.7
- 47.1
View all recorded scores
| Snapshot date | Signal score |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | 57.6 |
| 2026-10-27 | 55.1 |
| 2026-10-28 | 50.1 |
| 2026-10-29 | 49.7 |
| 2026-11-03 | 47.7 |
| 2026-11-04 | 47.4 |
| 2026-11-05 | 47.1 |
Why this score? · Model details
Priority = 100 × Σ(fixed weight × 0–1 rule-based input)
| Factor | Weight | This company input | Point contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15-day buyer breadth (count) | 35% | 0.300 | 10.5 |
| Qualified-buy size | 25% | 0.622 | 15.6 |
| Role informativeness (inverted) | 20% | 0.350 | 7.0 |
| Recency | 10% | 0.406 | 4.1 |
| Buy/sell conviction | 10% | 1.000 | 10.0 |
This is a heuristic ordering under the current rules, not a calibrated return forecast. It explains why candidates rank differently; the public-filing evidence and data limits are shown below.
Snapshot & identity
- Snapshot date
- 2026-11-05
- Ticker
- LNZ.VI
- ISIN
- AT0000644505
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Textile Manufacturing
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