| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 5Developing evidence | 100.0% (5/5) | 20.0% (1/5) | -1.0% | -1.7% | -8.3% |
| 20D | 5Developing evidence | 100.0% (5/5) | 80.0% (4/5) | +0.7% | +2.3% | -4.3% |
| 60D | 5Developing evidence | 100.0% (5/5) | 40.0% (2/5) | -6.0% | -4.1% | -19.3% |
| 120D | 5Developing evidence | 100.0% (5/5) | 0.0% (0/5) | -16.8% | -17.3% | -30.0% |
COMPANY RESEARCH
Universal Music Group N.V.
UMG.AS · Netherlands · Communication Services · Entertainment
INSIDER SIGNAL
Insider activity score：37.5 / 100
This is a ranking under the current European screening rules—not a probability of gain, return forecast, or buy recommendation.
BULL VS BEAR
Two readings of this buying
The same filings, read two ways. Each line is a fact stored for this company with the number behind it, and appears only when that number crosses a fixed threshold. Neither side is a forecast and no winner is declared.
Where the evidence comes from
The two kinds of evidence disagree: the purchases themselves carry bull lines (senior executive buying), while share price and trading argue against (price down over six months, price trails its sector). No data is held for: company results, company actions.
- The insider purchases themselvesBullsenior executive buying Bearone buyer only, small purchases, latest purchase is old1 checked, under the threshold
- Share price and tradingBearprice down over six months, price trails its sector
- Short sellers1 checked, under the threshold
- Company results2 missing
- Company actions1 missing
Bull case · the buying is informative
- The buyers include the CFO, who sees more of the business than most filers. This site's score gives little or no credit for that: in its backtests purchases by senior executives did no better than other insiders' purchases.Record: after 8,759 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −3.1%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−3.2%).
Bear case · discount it
- Only one insider bought. A single purchase can reflect that person's own finances rather than a view on the company.Record: after 4,719 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −2.8%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−3.3%).
- All purchases in the window total €10k: a small commitment in absolute terms.
- The latest purchase was 126 days ago (2026-06-15). A reporting period has passed since, so what the buyers knew then may already be public.
- Share price and tradingThe share price is down 26% over six months (three months −24%, one month +0.49%). Insiders have bought into a fall the market has not reversed.Record (nearest stored case: price 20% or more below its prior 52-week high): after 11,051 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −3.2%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−2.6%).
- Share price and tradingOver three months the share price changed −24% and the median of 126 Communication Services companies changed −1.7%: 22 points behind. The market has marked this company down against its own sector.
Evidence still missing
- The company's market value is not captured, so the purchases cannot be stated as a share of the business or of its trading volume.
- No earnings, margin or cash-flow figures are captured for this company. The latest annual and interim reports are where to check whether the business is improving or deteriorating.
- The next scheduled results are on 2026-10-29. They are the first hard test of either reading.
Checked and under the threshold: 2
- BearNo insider sale is recorded in the same 180 days.
- BearPublished net short positions total 0.60% of the share capital across 1 named holder. Counted for the bear side from 2%. On 2026-10-02 it was 1.10%: down 0.50 points since.
Both columns arrange stored facts only. They do not change the insider score or the ranking and are not investment advice.
Signal history
37.5 / 100
Latest recorded score
→ +0.0 ptsversus the comparable snapshot on 2026-09-14 (35 calendar days apart)
- Recorded snapshots
- 23
- First snapshot
- 2026-09-14
Only scores captured when the scoring run completed are compared. These are raw signal scores saved when each full scoring run completed. They describe changes in research ranking, not price performance or returns.
Why did it change?
No score factor changed beyond rounding between the comparable snapshots.
Signal score history
Fixed 0–100 scale; dates are spaced by calendar time.
Recent recorded points
- 37.5
- 37.5
- 37.5
- 37.5
- 37.5
View all recorded scores
| Snapshot date | Signal score |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | 37.5 |
| 2026-09-23 | 37.5 |
| 2026-09-24 | 37.5 |
| 2026-09-25 | 37.5 |
| 2026-09-28 | 37.5 |
| 2026-09-29 | 37.5 |
| 2026-09-30 | 37.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | 37.5 |
| 2026-10-02 | 37.5 |
| 2026-10-03 | 37.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | 37.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | 37.5 |
| 2026-10-06 | 37.5 |
| 2026-10-07 | 37.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | 37.5 |
| 2026-10-09 | 37.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | 37.5 |
| 2026-10-13 | 37.5 |
| 2026-10-14 | 37.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | 37.5 |
| 2026-10-16 | 37.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | 37.5 |
| 2026-10-19 | 37.5 |
Why this score? · Model details
Priority = 100 × Σ(fixed weight × 0–1 rule-based input)
| Factor | Weight | This company input | Point contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15-day buyer breadth (count) | 35% | 0.300 | 10.5 |
| Qualified-buy size | 25% | 0.599 | 15.0 |
| Role informativeness (inverted) | 20% | 0.100 | 2.0 |
| Recency | 10% | 0.000 | 0.0 |
| Buy/sell conviction | 10% | 1.000 | 10.0 |
This is a heuristic ordering under the current rules, not a calibrated return forecast. It explains why candidates rank differently; the public-filing evidence and data limits are shown below.
Why there is no buy signal
No qualifying open-market purchase disclosure is available in the current research window. This is not a sell signal.
The underlying disclosures remain available below for audit.
Sector context
- Buying breadth
- 10.0% (25 / 249 issuers)
- Sector rank
- #3 / 12
- 7D breadth change
- -0.8 pp · vs 2026-10-12 (7d)
- 30D breadth change
- History building
This is sector-level research context. It does not affect the Insider Signal or ranking.
Insider profile outcomes
Historical performance following insider filings. The company role is translated below each name while preserving the original title.
- Excess return = stock return − AEX return over the same period.
- Hit rate = completed events with positive excess return ÷ total completed events.
- Price coverage = valid point-in-time prices ÷ events mature enough for that period.
- Returns start on the first shared trading session on or after publication.
- Small-sample rule: n<5 is shown for transparency and is not scored.
Events are disclosure-level observations; related disclosures published on the same date may share a return path and may not be statistically independent. This research enrichment does not affect the insider score or ranking.
| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 5Developing evidence | 100.0% (5/5) | 20.0% (1/5) | -2.7% | -2.2% | -8.3% |
| 20D | 5Developing evidence | 100.0% (5/5) | 60.0% (3/5) | +0.7% | +2.1% | -4.3% |
| 60D | 5Developing evidence | 100.0% (5/5) | 40.0% (2/5) | -6.0% | -2.6% | -12.0% |
| 120D | 5Developing evidence | 100.0% (5/5) | 0.0% (0/5) | -18.3% | -17.6% | -30.0% |
| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 4Small sample | 100.0% (4/4) | 25.0% (1/4) | -1.4% | -2.4% | -8.3% |
| 20D | 4Small sample | 100.0% (4/4) | 50.0% (2/4) | +2.3% | +1.9% | -4.8% |
| 60D | 4Small sample | 100.0% (4/4) | 0.0% (0/4) | -13.8% | -14.6% | -25.0% |
| 120D | 3Small sample | 100.0% (3/3) | 0.0% (0/3) | -23.7% | -23.8% | -30.0% |
Market context
PRICE PERFORMANCE
VOLATILITY & LIQUIDITY
- Volatility
- 41.9%
- Beta
- —
- Avg daily volume
- €33.4M
VALUATION
- Market cap
- —
- P/E
- —
FUNDAMENTALS
- Profit margin
- 12.3%
- ROE
- 33.7%
- Industry
- —
Prices to 07 Oct 2026: price cache (Eulerpool). From the company's annual report ↗, fiscal year ended 31 Dec 2025: Profit margin, ROE. It does not affect the insider score or rank.
Disclosed net short positions
- Disclosed total
- 0.60%
- Named holders
- 1
- Latest position date
- 28 Sep 2026
| Holder | Net short, % of issued share capital | Position date |
|---|---|---|
| Capital Fund Management S.A. | 0.60% | 28 Sep 2026 |
Only positions of 0.5% or more are published, so the total is a lower bound, not total short interest. A row with an old position date may be a disclosure that was never withdrawn. Source: AFM · read 19 Oct 2026
- Aggregate net short
- 2.38%
- Latest position date
- 15 Oct 2026
The FCA publishes one aggregate figure per issuer, the sum of all positions notified to it, and does not name the holders. Source: FCA · read 19 Oct 2026
Short-position disclosures are external context; they do not affect the insider score, ranking, or filing eligibility.
Insiders' buying price vs the latest close
No qualifying purchase was filed in this period.
Buying size vs market trading
No daily prices and volumes have been captured for this stock yet.
Insider timeline
The current window holds no filing with a trade date.
Insider vs stock price
No daily prices and volumes have been captured for this stock yet.
Latest news
No news has been captured for this company.
Regulatory filings
The filing records held for this company carry no link to the original notice.
Filing evidence
These are underlying national-feed records from the 365-day window ending on the saved ranking snapshot. The score uses only the latest 180 days; older qualifying equity purchases remain visible for audit but do not enter the current score. The original filer, role, transaction classification, instrument, price, volume, value and source fields are retained. The first three rows are shown; remaining records can be unfolded for audit. Other transaction types are retained but excluded from the score.
Excluded transactions & classification
The underlying filing feed is unavailable in this snapshot; this is not a claim that no filings exist.
Other disclosed transactions · excluded from score
The underlying filing feed is unavailable in this snapshot; this is not a claim that no filings exist.
Follow new disclosures
Subscribe to new Europe disclosures. These are market-wide RSS feeds, not company-specific alerts.
Snapshot & identity
- Snapshot date
- 2026-10-19
- Ticker
- UMG.AS
- ISIN
- NL0015000IY2
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment