| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 2Small sample | 100.0% (2/2) | 100.0% (2/2) | +1.7% | +1.7% | +0.7% |
| 20D | 2Small sample | 100.0% (2/2) | 100.0% (2/2) | +1.9% | +1.9% | +1.5% |
| 60D | 2Small sample | 100.0% (2/2) | 50.0% (1/2) | +5.7% | +5.7% | -1.2% |
| 120D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 100.0% (1/1) | +14.4% | +14.4% | +14.4% |
COMPANY RESEARCH
Axfood AB
AXFO.ST · Sweden · Consumer Defensive · Grocery Stores
INSIDER SIGNAL
Insider activity score：58.2 / 100
3 insiders · 3 purchase events · €88k net purchases
Europe #351 · Sweden #101
WHY THIS SIGNAL?
Score anatomy
Each bar shows the contribution to the current score; the weights and formula stay unchanged.
Cluster+29.8 / 35
How many distinct insiders bought in the cluster
Purchase size+18.4 / 25
Purchase value relative to company size and liquidity
Role+20.0 / 20
The seniority and relevance of participating insiders
Recency+0.0 / 10
How recently the purchases occurred
Conviction+10.0 / 10
How clearly buying stands out from other activity
What is holding the score back?
- ⚠ Purchase activity is becoming less recent
- ✓ Broad buyer cluster · 4+ distinct filers
- ✓ Strong insider role · ceo/chair involved
The role contribution uses the inverted role input of the current European model.
Buying concentration
47%
Largest buyer：Anders Lexmon · 458k SEK
Gross qualified purchase transaction-line value：985k SEK
The headline € total is net buying for the screen; this module uses gross qualified purchase transaction-line values in the filing currency, so the amounts can differ. The current 15-day buyer-breadth input counts distinct buyers; value concentration is disclosed separately here.
This is a ranking under the current European screening rules—not a probability of gain, return forecast, or buy recommendation.
Key purchase quotes (filing currency)
| Filer | Price per unit | Trade date |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Luiga | 231 SEK | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Anders Lexmon | 229 SEK | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Nicholas Pettersson | 227.6 SEK | Jul 16, 2026 |
Model details
Cluster breakdown (does not change the score)
- 15-day buyer breadth (count)
- 3 distinct reported filers
- Peak time window
- 2026-07-16 to 2026-07-23
- Current breadth input
- 0.850 (capped at 4+ buyers)
- Buyer independence
- Not yet measured; related-party fields are not cross-market comparable
What the filings show
- 🟢 Recent eligible purchase
Christian Luiga · 231k SEK · Price 231 SEK · Jul 23, 2026 - 🟢 Eligible purchase
Anders Lexmon · 458k SEK · Price 229 SEK · Jul 17, 2026 - 🟢 Large eligible purchase
Nicholas Pettersson · 296k SEK · Price 227.6 SEK · Jul 16, 2026 - 🔴 6 other transaction line(s) are not counted as discretionary-buying evidence; 6 have zero price
Insider vs stock price
3 purchase day(s), 3 purchase line(s) in the 180-day window.
Daily close (SEK)Day with an insider purchase
Markers sit on the closing price of the transaction day. They show when insiders traded, not the price they paid or received. "Since" compares that day's close with the last close shown; it is what happened at this company, not a forecast.
If you had followed the purchase
Each row starts on the first close on or after the day a purchase was made public, the earliest a reader could have acted, and ends on the last close shown above.
| Made public | Insiders | In this stock, now | In the median peer stock, now | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | 1 | 1,128 +12.8% | 967 −3.3% | +161 +16.1 pts |
| 2026-07-17 | 1 | 1,118 +11.8% | 963 −3.7% | +155 +15.5 pts |
| 2026-07-23 | 1 | 1,108 +10.8% | 956 −4.4% | +152 +15.2 pts |
3 of 3 disclosure day(s) ended ahead of the median peer stock.
Close to close, before costs, taxes, dividends and currency moves. The peer is the median of the other stocks on the same exchange for which this site holds prices (438 here), not an index. This is what happened, not a forecast: across all purchases on this site the typical gap is close to zero.
Insider timeline
3 insiders bought within 8 days, 16 Jul to 23 Jul: 1 CEO / chair, 1 CFO, 1 Board member. The share closed at 228.50 on the first of those days and at 257.70 most recently (+12.8%). That week 181 companies across Europe disclosed insider purchases, an ordinary week (15 of the last 26).
Tap an item for what it means.
●A purchase: the bigger the dot, the more was bought
Each dot is one insider's purchases on one day. The dot's area follows the amount: the largest purchase here gets the largest dot. Hold the pointer over a dot to see the date and the amount.
▮Purple band: several insiders bought within 15 days
The band marks the stretch with the most different buyers: at most 15 days long and at least two people. Here it is 16 Jul – 23 Jul, with 3 insiders. Only the strongest stretch is marked. Several people deciding the same thing is harder to explain by one person's private reasons, but insiders often buy together just after a closed period ends, so compare it with the grey weekly bars.
Blue line: this share's price, −19.7% over these six months
The closing price of each day, from 320.80 on 2026-04-21 to 257.70 on 2026-10-07. The line has no scale; read it for high and low: a dot on a low stretch was bought cheaply, a dot on a high stretch was not.
Dashed line: the typical stock on the same exchange, −9.1%
Taken from the 457 other stocks on the same exchange that this site holds prices for. Each is measured from the first day of the window, and every day the middle one is drawn. It starts where the blue line starts, so the gap between the two is the difference: this share −19.7%, the typical one −9.1%, 10.6 points behind. It is not an index and not a comparison within one industry.
▂Grey bars: companies across Europe disclosing purchases each week
A taller bar is a week in which more companies disclosed insider purchases. The purple bar is the week of the band above: 181 companies, number 15 of the last 26 weeks. If that week was a peak anyway, buying together is less special than it looks.
This company: insiders buying per month, last 12 months
Nov
Dec
1Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
3Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Darker bars are inside the 180-day window above.
Who traded
| Insider | Role | Purchases | Sales | Bought | First purchase | Share price since | Earlier purchases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Pettersson | CEO / chair | 1 | — | 295.9k SEK | 2026-07-16 | +12.8% | fewer than 5 completed |
| Anders Lexmon | CFO | 1 | — | 458.0k SEK | 2026-07-17 | +11.8% | fewer than 5 completed |
| Christian Luiga | Board member | 1 | — | 231.0k SEK | 2026-07-23 | +10.8% | fewer than 5 completed |
Why this score? · Model details
Priority = 100 × Σ(fixed weight × 0–1 rule-based input)
| Factor | Weight | This company input | Point contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15-day buyer breadth (count) | 35% | 0.850 | 29.8 |
| Qualified-buy size | 25% | 0.738 | 18.4 |
| Role informativeness (inverted) | 20% | 0.000 | 0.0 |
| Recency | 10% | 0.003 | 0.0 |
| Buy/sell conviction | 10% | 1.000 | 10.0 |
This is a heuristic ordering under the current rules, not a calibrated return forecast. It explains why candidates rank differently; the public-filing evidence and data limits are shown below.
BULL VS BEAR
Two readings of this buying
The same filings, read two ways. Each line is a fact stored for this company with the number behind it, and appears only when that number crosses a fixed threshold. Neither side is a forecast and no winner is declared.
Since 2026-10-13, neither column has changed. All bull and bear lists, and what followed each line in the past →
Where the evidence comes from
Independent evidence does not object: the purchases themselves carry bull lines (several insiders together, more buyers than usual here, senior executive buying); share price and trading, short sellers were checked and none crosses a bear threshold. No data is held for: company results, company actions.
- The insider purchases themselvesBullseveral insiders together, more buyers than usual here, senior executive buying5 checked, under the threshold · 3 missing
- Share price and trading2 checked, under the threshold
- Short sellers1 checked, under the threshold
- Company results2 missing
- Company actions1 missing
Bull case · the buying is informative
- 3 insiders bought within 15 days (2026-07-16 to 2026-07-23). Several people reaching the same decision at the same time is hard to put down to one person's circumstances.Record: after 5,401 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −3.3%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−3.3%).
- 3 insiders bought in the last 180 days against 1 in the 180 days before: more than this company's own recent norm.Record: after 3,134 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −2.7%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−2.7%).
- The buyers include the CEO or chair, who sees more of the business than most filers. This site's score gives little or no credit for that: in its backtests purchases by senior executives did no better than other insiders' purchases.Record: after 8,797 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −3.1%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−3.2%).
Bear case · discount it
Nothing held here argues against the buying. That is not the same as nothing existing: see the missing evidence below.
Evidence still missing
- No buyer here has 5 or more completed earlier purchases on record, so there is no track record to weigh.
- The company's market value is not captured, so the purchases cannot be stated as a share of the business or of its trading volume.
- No earnings, margin or cash-flow figures are captured for this company. The latest annual and interim reports are where to check whether the business is improving or deteriorating.
- The next scheduled results are on 2026-10-22. They are the first hard test of either reading.
- European notifications have no field saying whether a purchase was pre-arranged; there is no counterpart to the US 10b5-1 box. None of the 3 purchase lines mentions a plan, but a bare “Förvärv” does not rule one out.
- The filings give the size of each trade, not what the buyer already held. Whether a purchase added 1% to a personal stake or doubled it is not known.
Checked and under the threshold: 8, 2 close to it
- EitherThe latest purchase is 86 days old. Bull up to 14 days, bear from 90. close to the threshold
- BearThe share price changed −19% over six months (three months −3.0%, one month +7.2%). Counted for the bear side from a fall of 20%. close to the threshold
- BearThe largest buyer accounts for 47% of the value bought. Counted for the bear side from 80%.
- Bear0 of 3 buyers filed as a person closely associated with a manager. Counted for the bear side from half.
- EitherNet purchases of €88k in 180 days. Bull from €1.0M, bear when all purchases total under €25k.
- BearNo insider sale is recorded in the same 180 days.
- BearOver three months the share price changed −3.0% and the median of 120 Consumer Defensive companies changed −0.78%: behind by 2 points. Counted for the bear side from 20 points behind.
- BearPublished net short positions total 0.80% of the share capital across 1 named holder. Counted for the bear side from 2%. On 2026-10-02 it was 0.70%: up 0.10 points since.
Both columns arrange stored facts only. They do not change the insider score or the ranking and are not investment advice.
Signal history
58.2 / 100
Latest recorded score
↓ -0.2 ptsversus the comparable snapshot on 2026-09-14 (34 calendar days apart)
- Recorded snapshots
- 35
- First snapshot
- 2026-08-26
Only scores captured when the scoring run completed are compared. These are raw signal scores saved when each full scoring run completed. They describe changes in research ranking, not price performance or returns.
Why did it change?
Decomposition across the five score factors between comparable snapshots; historical scores are not recalculated.
- Recency-0.2 pts
Signal score history
Fixed 0–100 scale; dates are spaced by calendar time.
Recent recorded points
- 60.9
- 58.6
- 58.3
- 58.2
- 58.2
View all recorded scores
| Snapshot date | Signal score |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 60.9 |
| 2026-08-27 | 60.9 |
| 2026-08-28 | 59.0 |
| 2026-08-31 | 58.9 |
| 2026-09-01 | 58.8 |
| 2026-09-02 | 58.8 |
| 2026-09-03 | 58.8 |
| 2026-09-04 | 58.7 |
| 2026-09-07 | 58.6 |
| 2026-09-08 | 58.6 |
| 2026-09-09 | 58.6 |
| 2026-09-10 | 58.5 |
| 2026-09-11 | 58.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | 58.4 |
| 2026-09-23 | 58.3 |
| 2026-09-24 | 58.3 |
| 2026-09-25 | 58.3 |
| 2026-09-28 | 58.3 |
| 2026-09-29 | 58.3 |
| 2026-09-30 | 58.3 |
| 2026-10-01 | 58.3 |
| 2026-10-02 | 58.3 |
| 2026-10-03 | 58.3 |
| 2026-10-04 | 58.3 |
| 2026-10-05 | 58.3 |
| 2026-10-06 | 58.3 |
| 2026-10-07 | 58.2 |
| 2026-10-08 | 58.3 |
| 2026-10-09 | 58.3 |
| 2026-10-12 | 58.2 |
| 2026-10-13 | 58.2 |
| 2026-10-14 | 58.2 |
| 2026-10-15 | 58.2 |
| 2026-10-16 | 58.2 |
| 2026-10-18 | 58.2 |
Sector context
- Buying breadth
- 11.6% (29 / 249 issuers)
- Sector rank
- #2 / 12
- 7D breadth change
- -1.2 pp · vs 2026-10-12 (6d)
- 30D breadth change
- History building
This is sector-level research context. It does not affect the Insider Signal or ranking.
Insider profile outcomes
Historical performance following insider filings. The company role is translated below each name while preserving the original title.
- Excess return = stock return − OMX Stockholm 30 return over the same period.
- Hit rate = completed events with positive excess return ÷ total completed events.
- Price coverage = valid point-in-time prices ÷ events mature enough for that period.
- Returns start on the first shared trading session on or after publication.
- Small-sample rule: n<5 is shown for transparency and is not scored.
Events are disclosure-level observations; related disclosures published on the same date may share a return path and may not be statistically independent. This research enrichment does not affect the insider score or ranking.
| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 2Small sample | 100.0% (2/2) | 50.0% (1/2) | +0.1% | +0.1% | -4.5% |
| 20D | 2Small sample | 100.0% (2/2) | 50.0% (1/2) | -0.8% | -0.8% | -2.9% |
| 60D | 2Small sample | 100.0% (2/2) | 0.0% (0/2) | -11.2% | -11.2% | -16.7% |
| 120D | 2Small sample | 100.0% (2/2) | 0.0% (0/2) | -41.4% | -41.4% | -54.9% |
| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 100.0% (1/1) | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% |
| 20D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 0.0% (0/1) | -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.0% |
| 60D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 100.0% (1/1) | +10.7% | +10.7% | +10.7% |
| 120D | 0No data | Awaiting maturity | — | — | — | — |
Market context
PRICE PERFORMANCE
VOLATILITY & LIQUIDITY
- Volatility
- 28.1%
- Beta
- —
- Avg daily volume
- SEK 87.1M
VALUATION
- Market cap
- —
- P/E
- —
FUNDAMENTALS
- Profit margin
- 2.6%
- ROE
- 31.1%
- Industry
- —
Prices to 07 Oct 2026: price cache (Eulerpool). From the company's annual report ↗, fiscal year ended 31 Dec 2024: Profit margin, ROE. It does not affect the insider score or rank.
Disclosed net short positions
- Disclosed total
- 0.80%
- Named holders
- 1
- Latest position date
- 13 Oct 2026
| Holder | Net short, % of issued share capital | Position date |
|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd | 0.80% | 13 Oct 2026 |
Only positions of 0.5% or more are published, so the total is a lower bound, not total short interest. A row with an old position date may be a disclosure that was never withdrawn. Source: Finansinspektionen · read 18 Oct 2026
Short-position disclosures are external context; they do not affect the insider score, ranking, or filing eligibility.
Insiders' buying price vs the latest close
The latest close in the price history is more than a week old.
Buying size vs market trading
Market history is too old for this snapshot; ratios are withheld.
Market-data coverage: 245 verified sessions · Latest session: 2026-10-07 · Ratio status: Unavailable
Traded value is estimated as close × shares traded, in major currency units. Includes disclosed qualifying purchases; disclosures may lag. Contractual or planned acquisitions are not necessarily discretionary. Ratios describe relative trading size, not market participation or score contributions.
Latest news
No news has been captured for this company.
Regulatory filings
The filing records held for this company carry no link to the original notice.
Filing evidence
These are underlying national-feed records from the 365-day window ending on the saved ranking snapshot. The score uses only the latest 180 days; older qualifying equity purchases remain visible for audit but do not enter the current score. The original filer, role, transaction classification, instrument, price, volume, value and source fields are retained. The first three rows are shown; remaining records can be unfolded for audit. Other transaction types are retained but excluded from the score.
Excluded transactions & classification
4 qualifying purchase disclosure(s) · 4 transaction line(s)
Jul 23, 2026Förvärv
Christian Luiga · Styrelseledamot
Aktie · 1000.0 shares × 231.0 SEK · —
Jul 17, 2026Förvärv
Anders Lexmon · Ekonomichef/finanschef/finansdirektör
Aktie · 2000.0 shares × 229.0 SEK · —
Jul 16, 2026Förvärv
Nicholas Pettersson · Verkställande direktör (VD)
Aktie · 1300.0 shares × 227.6 SEK · —
Unfold all 1 remaining filing row(s)
| Transaction date | Published | Filer | Role | Transaction | Instrument | Price (local currency) | Quote currency | Volume | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-01-30 | Sara Öhrvall Conradi | Styrelseledamot | Förvärv | Aktie | 303.60 SEK | SEK | 219.0 | — |
Showing 4 of 4 matching raw-feed row(s) from the current 365-day research window. Prices and reported values remain in the filing currency and its major unit (for example, UK pence are parsed as GBP). The screen-level € aggregate is separately FX-normalised for research ranking, not a trade-date conversion.
Other disclosed transactions · excluded from score
View 6 other transaction(s)
Apr 24, 2026Tilldelning
Patrick Grabenbauer · Annan medlem i bolagets administrations-, lednings- eller kontrollorgan
Aktie · 504.0 shares × 0.00 SEK · —
Apr 24, 2026Tilldelning
Nicholas Pettersson · Verkställande direktör (VD)
Aktie · 2523.0 shares × 0.0 SEK · —
Apr 24, 2026Tilldelning
Shoan Etemadi · Annan medlem i bolagets administrations-, lednings- eller kontrollorgan
Aktie · 504.0 shares × 0.0 SEK · —
Unfold all 3 remaining filing row(s)
| Transaction date | Published | Filer | Role | Transaction | Instrument | Price (local currency) | Quote currency | Volume | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | 2026-04-27 | Hans Bax | Annan medlem i bolagets administrations-, lednings- eller kontrollorgan | Tilldelning | Aktie | 0.0 SEK | SEK | 504.0 | — |
| 2026-04-24 | 2026-04-27 | Anders Lexmon | Ekonomichef/finanschef/finansdirektör | Tilldelning | Aktie | 0.0 SEK | SEK | 2523.0 | — |
| 2026-04-24 | 2026-04-26 | Simone Margulies | Verkställande direktör (VD) | Tilldelning | Aktie | 0.0 SEK | SEK | 2523.0 | — |
Showing 6 of 6 matching raw-feed row(s) from the current 365-day research window. Prices and reported values remain in the filing currency and its major unit (for example, UK pence are parsed as GBP). The screen-level € aggregate is separately FX-normalised for research ranking, not a trade-date conversion.
Snapshot & identity
- Snapshot date
- 2026-10-18
- Ticker
- AXFO.ST
- ISIN
- SE0006993770
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Grocery Stores
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