| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 12Developing evidence | 100.0% (12/12) | 50.0% (6/12) | +0.1% | +0.8% | -6.4% |
| 20D | 12Developing evidence | 100.0% (12/12) | 50.0% (6/12) | -0.9% | -0.5% | -7.3% |
| 60D | 11Developing evidence | 100.0% (11/11) | 72.7% (8/11) | +9.9% | +9.9% | -19.7% |
| 120D | 9Developing evidence | 100.0% (9/9) | 66.7% (6/9) | +30.8% | +20.0% | -36.9% |
COMPANY RESEARCH
Nelly Group AB (publ)
NELLY.ST · Sweden · Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail
INSIDER SIGNAL
Insider activity score：42.2 / 100
2 insiders · 6 purchase events · €883k net purchases
Europe #1058 · Sweden #249
WHY THIS SIGNAL?
Score anatomy
Each bar shows the contribution to the current score; the weights and formula stay unchanged.
Cluster+10.5 / 35
How many distinct insiders bought in the cluster
Purchase size+22.2 / 25
Purchase value relative to company size and liquidity
Role+20.0 / 20
The seniority and relevance of participating insiders
Recency+0.0 / 10
How recently the purchases occurred
Conviction+9.4 / 10
How clearly buying stands out from other activity
What is holding the score back?
- ⚠ Buyer breadth is moderate · fewer than 4 distinct filers
- ⚠ Purchase activity is becoming less recent
- ✓ Strong insider role · ceo/chair involved
The role contribution uses the inverted role input of the current European model.
Buying concentration
97%
Largest buyer：Josephine Bernadotte · 10.10m SEK
Gross qualified purchase transaction-line value：10.45m SEK
The headline € total is net buying for the screen; this module uses gross qualified purchase transaction-line values in the filing currency, so the amounts can differ. The current 15-day buyer-breadth input counts distinct buyers; value concentration is disclosed separately here.
This is a ranking under the current European screening rules—not a probability of gain, return forecast, or buy recommendation.
Key purchase quotes (filing currency)
| Filer | Price per unit | Trade date |
|---|---|---|
| Josephine Bernadotte | 34.8 SEK | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Josephine Bernadotte | 33.6 SEK | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Josephine Bernadotte | 34–34.367 SEK | Jul 17, 2026 |
Model details
Cluster breakdown (does not change the score)
- 15-day buyer breadth (count)
- 1 distinct reported filers
- Peak time window
- 2026-05-04 to 2026-05-04
- Current breadth input
- 0.300 (capped at 4+ buyers)
- Buyer independence
- Not yet measured; related-party fields are not cross-market comparable
What the filings show
- 🟢 Recent eligible purchase
Josephine Bernadotte · 1.30m SEK · Price 34.8 SEK · Jul 21, 2026 - 🟢 Eligible purchase
Josephine Bernadotte · 1.68m SEK · Price 33.6 SEK · Jul 20, 2026 - 🟢 Large eligible purchase
Josephine Bernadotte · 4.68m SEK · Price 34–34.367 SEK · Jul 17, 2026 - 🟡 3 remaining qualified transaction line(s) across 3 disclosure(s)
- 🔴 14 other transaction line(s) are not counted as discretionary-buying evidence; 9 have zero price
Insider vs stock price
5 purchase day(s), 8 purchase line(s) in the 180-day window. 1 sale day(s), 1 sale line(s).
Daily close (SEK)Day with an insider purchaseDay with an insider sale
Markers sit on the closing price of the transaction day. They show when insiders traded, not the price they paid or received. "Since" compares that day's close with the last close shown; it is what happened at this company, not a forecast.
If you had followed the purchase
Each row starts on the first close on or after the day a purchase was made public, the earliest a reader could have acted, and ends on the last close shown above.
| Made public | Insiders | In this stock, now | In the median peer stock, now | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | 1 | 854 −14.6% | 950 −5.0% | −96 −9.6 pts |
| 2026-07-20 | 1 | 868 −13.2% | 964 −3.6% | −95 −9.5 pts |
| 2026-07-21 | 1 | 821 −17.9% | 965 −3.5% | −144 −14.4 pts |
| 2026-07-22 | 1 | 823 −17.7% | 959 −4.1% | −136 −13.6 pts |
| 2026-07-23 | 1 | 813 −18.7% | 957 −4.3% | −144 −14.4 pts |
| 2026-07-24 | 1 | 787 −21.3% | 955 −4.5% | −168 −16.8 pts |
0 of 6 disclosure day(s) ended ahead of the median peer stock.
Close to close, before costs, taxes, dividends and currency moves. The peer is the median of the other stocks on the same exchange for which this site holds prices (438 here), not an index. This is what happened, not a forecast: across all purchases on this site the typical gap is close to zero.
Insider timeline
2 insiders bought in the last 180 days, 1 of them more than once.
Tap an item for what it means.
●A purchase: the bigger the dot, the more was bought
Each dot is one insider's purchases on one day. The dot's area follows the amount: the largest purchase here gets the largest dot. Hold the pointer over a dot to see the date and the amount.
×A sale
A cross is one insider's sales on one day. People sell to pay tax, to cash in share awards or to hold less of one company, so a sale says less than a purchase does. When someone bought and sold on the same day, the cross sits beside the dot. The totals are under “Purchases against sales” below.
Blue line: this share's price, −58.0% over these six months
The closing price of each day, from 70.70 on 2026-04-21 to 29.72 on 2026-10-07. The line has no scale; read it for high and low: a dot on a low stretch was bought cheaply, a dot on a high stretch was not.
Dashed line: the typical stock on the same exchange, −9.1%
Taken from the 457 other stocks on the same exchange that this site holds prices for. Each is measured from the first day of the window, and every day the middle one is drawn. It starts where the blue line starts, so the gap between the two is the difference: this share −58.0%, the typical one −9.1%, 48.9 points behind. It is not an index and not a comparison within one industry.
▂Grey bars: companies across Europe disclosing purchases each week
A taller bar is a week in which more companies disclosed insider purchases.
This company: insiders buying per month, last 12 months
Nov
Dec
Jan
1Feb
Mar
Apr
1May
Jun
1Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Darker bars are inside the 180-day window above.
Who traded
| Insider | Role | Purchases | Sales | Bought | First purchase | Share price since | Earlier purchases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebba Ljungerud | CEO / chair | 1 | — | 346.0k SEK | 2026-05-04 | −14.6% | 11 completed, median +9.9% against peers after 60 sessions |
| Stefan Svensson | Board member | — | 1 | — | — | — | fewer than 5 completed |
| Josephine Bernadotte | Board member | 5 | — | 10.1M SEK | 2026-07-15 | −7.9% | 8 completed, median −21.7% against peers after 60 sessions |
Purchases against sales
Purchases94%10.4M SEK · 8 line(s) · 2 insider(s)
Sales6%613.5k SEK · 1 line(s) · 1 insider(s)
Shares of the reported value of insider transactions in the 180-day window. Sales include disposals for tax, at option exercise or under a pre-set plan, which say little about an insider's view. The split describes what was disclosed; it is not a signal.
Why this score? · Model details
Priority = 100 × Σ(fixed weight × 0–1 rule-based input)
| Factor | Weight | This company input | Point contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15-day buyer breadth (count) | 35% | 0.300 | 10.5 |
| Qualified-buy size | 25% | 0.888 | 22.2 |
| Role informativeness (inverted) | 20% | 0.000 | 0.0 |
| Recency | 10% | 0.002 | 0.0 |
| Buy/sell conviction | 10% | 0.945 | 9.4 |
This is a heuristic ordering under the current rules, not a calibrated return forecast. It explains why candidates rank differently; the public-filing evidence and data limits are shown below.
BULL VS BEAR
Two readings of this buying
The same filings, read two ways. Each line is a fact stored for this company with the number behind it, and appears only when that number crosses a fixed threshold. Neither side is a forecast and no winner is declared.
Since 2026-10-13, neither column has changed. All bull and bear lists, and what followed each line in the past →
Where the evidence comes from
The two kinds of evidence disagree: the purchases themselves carry bull lines (senior executive buying, buyer's past purchases beat the benchmark), while share price and trading argue against (price down over six months). No data is held for: company results, company actions.
- The insider purchases themselvesBullsenior executive buying, buyer's past purchases beat the benchmark Bearvalue concentrated in one buyer, associated persons buying5 checked, under the threshold · 2 missing
- Share price and tradingBearprice down over six months1 checked, under the threshold
- Short sellers1 checked, under the threshold
- Company results2 missing
- Company actionsno data held
Bull case · the buying is informative
- The buyers include the CEO or chair, who sees more of the business than most filers. This site's score gives little or no credit for that: in its backtests purchases by senior executives did no better than other insiders' purchases.Record: after 8,797 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −3.1%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−3.2%).
- The 11 earlier purchases by Ebba Ljungerud beat OMX Stockholm 30 by a median 9.9% over the following 60 trading days.
Bear case · discount it
- Josephine Bernadotte accounts for 97% of the value bought. The other 1 buyer adds names more than money.Record: after 3,396 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −3.4%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−3.5%).
- 1 of 2 buyers are filed as persons closely associated with a manager (family or a holding vehicle), not the manager. This model weights such filers among the least informative.Record: after 1,554 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −7.4%, 1.6 percentage points below all comparable disclosures (−5.8%).
- Share price and tradingThe share price is down 46% over six months (three months −18%, one month −17%). Insiders have bought into a fall the market has not reversed.Record (nearest stored case: price 20% or more below its prior 52-week high): after 11,077 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −3.2%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−2.6%).
Evidence still missing
- The company's market value is not captured, so the purchases cannot be stated as a share of the business or of its trading volume.
- No earnings, margin or cash-flow figures are captured for this company. The latest annual and interim reports are where to check whether the business is improving or deteriorating.
- European notifications have no field saying whether a purchase was pre-arranged; there is no counterpart to the US 10b5-1 box. None of the 8 purchase lines mentions a plan, but a bare “Förvärv” does not rule one out.
- The filings give the size of each trade, not what the buyer already held. Whether a purchase added 1% to a personal stake or doubled it is not known.
Checked and under the threshold: 7, 2 close to it
- EitherNet purchases of €883k in 180 days. Bull from €1.0M, bear when all purchases total under €25k. close to the threshold
- EitherThe latest purchase is 88 days old. Bull up to 14 days, bear from 90. close to the threshold
- BullAt most 1 insider bought within any 15 days. Counted for the bull side from 3.
- Either2 insiders bought in the last 180 days and 1 in the 180 days before. Bull when the number at least doubles and rises by two; bear when at least two bought before and no more buy now.
- BearInsiders sold €55k in the same 180 days, 5.9% of the amount bought. Counted for the bear side from 25%.
- BearOver three months the share price changed −18% and the median of 264 Consumer Cyclical companies changed −3.7%: behind by 14 points. Counted for the bear side from 20 points behind.
- BearThe register of Finansinspektionen shows no published net short position in this company. Positions under 0.5% are never published, so this does not show that nobody is short.
Both columns arrange stored facts only. They do not change the insider score or the ranking and are not investment advice.
Signal history
42.2 / 100
Latest recorded score
↓ -0.1 ptsversus the comparable snapshot on 2026-09-14 (34 calendar days apart)
- Recorded snapshots
- 35
- First snapshot
- 2026-08-26
Only scores captured when the scoring run completed are compared. These are raw signal scores saved when each full scoring run completed. They describe changes in research ranking, not price performance or returns.
Why did it change?
Decomposition across the five score factors between comparable snapshots; historical scores are not recalculated.
- Recency-0.2 pts
Signal score history
Fixed 0–100 scale; dates are spaced by calendar time.
Recent recorded points
- 45.3
- 42.5
- 42.2
- 42.2
- 42.2
View all recorded scores
| Snapshot date | Signal score |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 45.3 |
| 2026-08-27 | 45.3 |
| 2026-08-28 | 42.9 |
| 2026-08-31 | 42.7 |
| 2026-09-01 | 42.7 |
| 2026-09-02 | 42.6 |
| 2026-09-03 | 42.6 |
| 2026-09-04 | 42.6 |
| 2026-09-07 | 42.5 |
| 2026-09-08 | 42.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | 42.4 |
| 2026-09-10 | 42.4 |
| 2026-09-11 | 42.4 |
| 2026-09-14 | 42.3 |
| 2026-09-23 | 42.2 |
| 2026-09-24 | 42.2 |
| 2026-09-25 | 42.2 |
| 2026-09-28 | 42.2 |
| 2026-09-29 | 42.2 |
| 2026-09-30 | 42.2 |
| 2026-10-01 | 42.2 |
| 2026-10-02 | 42.2 |
| 2026-10-03 | 42.2 |
| 2026-10-04 | 42.2 |
| 2026-10-05 | 42.2 |
| 2026-10-06 | 42.2 |
| 2026-10-07 | 42.2 |
| 2026-10-08 | 42.2 |
| 2026-10-09 | 42.2 |
| 2026-10-12 | 42.2 |
| 2026-10-13 | 42.2 |
| 2026-10-14 | 42.2 |
| 2026-10-15 | 42.2 |
| 2026-10-16 | 42.2 |
| 2026-10-18 | 42.2 |
Sector context
- Buying breadth
- 8.3% (42 / 506 issuers)
- Sector rank
- #7 / 12
- 7D breadth change
- -2.4 pp · vs 2026-10-12 (6d)
- 30D breadth change
- History building
This is sector-level research context. It does not affect the Insider Signal or ranking.
Insider profile outcomes
Historical performance following insider filings. The company role is translated below each name while preserving the original title.
- Excess return = stock return − OMX Stockholm 30 return over the same period.
- Hit rate = completed events with positive excess return ÷ total completed events.
- Price coverage = valid point-in-time prices ÷ events mature enough for that period.
- Returns start on the first shared trading session on or after publication.
- Small-sample rule: n<5 is shown for transparency and is not scored.
Events are disclosure-level observations; related disclosures published on the same date may share a return path and may not be statistically independent. This research enrichment does not affect the insider score or ranking.
| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 8Developing evidence | 100.0% (8/8) | 50.0% (4/8) | -1.7% | -1.3% | -5.9% |
| 20D | 8Developing evidence | 100.0% (8/8) | 0.0% (0/8) | -4.6% | -5.3% | -11.2% |
| 60D | 8Developing evidence | 100.0% (8/8) | 0.0% (0/8) | -21.7% | -21.6% | -43.3% |
| 120D | 2Small sample | 100.0% (2/2) | 0.0% (0/2) | -38.8% | -38.8% | -51.8% |
| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 100.0% (1/1) | +4.8% | +4.8% | +4.8% |
| 20D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 0.0% (0/1) | -6.7% | -6.7% | -6.7% |
| 60D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 100.0% (1/1) | +17.6% | +17.6% | +17.6% |
| 120D | 1Small sample | 100.0% (1/1) | 100.0% (1/1) | +79.6% | +79.6% | +79.6% |
Market context
PRICE PERFORMANCE
VOLATILITY & LIQUIDITY
- Volatility
- 73.5%
- Beta
- —
- Avg daily volume
- SEK 3.9M
VALUATION
- Market cap
- —
- P/E
- —
FUNDAMENTALS
- Profit margin
- 7.6%
- ROE
- 35.2%
- Industry
- —
Prices to 07 Oct 2026: price cache (Eulerpool). From the company's annual report ↗, fiscal year ended 31 Dec 2024: Profit margin, ROE. It does not affect the insider score or rank.
Disclosed net short positions
The Finansinspektionen register, read 18 Oct 2026, publishes no net short position of 0.5% or more in this issuer. Positions below 0.5% are never published, so this is not evidence that nobody is short.
Short-position disclosures are external context; they do not affect the insider score, ranking, or filing eligibility.
Insiders' buying price vs the latest close
The latest close in the price history is more than a week old.
Buying size vs market trading
Market history is too old for this snapshot; ratios are withheld.
Market-data coverage: 250 verified sessions · Latest session: 2026-10-07 · Ratio status: Unavailable
Traded value is estimated as close × shares traded, in major currency units. Includes disclosed qualifying purchases; disclosures may lag. Contractual or planned acquisitions are not necessarily discretionary. Ratios describe relative trading size, not market participation or score contributions.
Latest news
No news has been captured for this company.
Regulatory filings
The filing records held for this company carry no link to the original notice.
Filing evidence
These are underlying national-feed records from the 365-day window ending on the saved ranking snapshot. The score uses only the latest 180 days; older qualifying equity purchases remain visible for audit but do not enter the current score. The original filer, role, transaction classification, instrument, price, volume, value and source fields are retained. The first three rows are shown; remaining records can be unfolded for audit. Other transaction types are retained but excluded from the score.
Excluded transactions & classification
9 qualifying purchase disclosure(s) · 9 transaction line(s)
Jul 21, 2026Förvärv
Josephine Bernadotte · Styrelseledamot
Aktie · 37264.0 shares × 34.8 SEK · —
Jul 20, 2026Förvärv
Josephine Bernadotte · Styrelseledamot
Aktie · 50000.0 shares × 33.6 SEK · —
Jul 17, 2026Förvärv
Josephine Bernadotte · Styrelseledamot
Aktie · 26166.0 shares × 34.0 SEK · —
Unfold all 6 remaining filing row(s)
| Transaction date | Published | Filer | Role | Transaction | Instrument | Price (local currency) | Quote currency | Volume | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-22 | Josephine Bernadotte | Styrelseledamot | Förvärv | Aktie | 34.367 SEK | SEK | 100000.0 | — |
| 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-22 | Josephine Bernadotte | Styrelseledamot | Förvärv | Aktie | 34.3294 SEK | SEK | 10170.0 | — |
| 2026-07-16 | 2026-07-21 | Josephine Bernadotte | Styrelseledamot | Förvärv | Aktie | 33.9971 SEK | SEK | 50037.0 | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-20 | Josephine Bernadotte | Styrelseledamot | Förvärv | Aktie | 31.5 SEK | SEK | 23797.0 | — |
| 2026-05-04 | 2026-05-04 | Ebba Ljungerud | Styrelseordförande | Förvärv | Aktie | 34.60 SEK | SEK | 10000.0 | — |
| 2026-02-16 | 2026-02-17 | Josephine Bernadotte | Styrelseledamot | Förvärv | Aktie | 63.0 SEK | SEK | 80000.0 | — |
Showing 9 of 9 matching raw-feed row(s) from the current 365-day research window. Prices and reported values remain in the filing currency and its major unit (for example, UK pence are parsed as GBP). The screen-level € aggregate is separately FX-normalised for research ranking, not a trade-date conversion.
Other disclosed transactions · excluded from score
View 14 other transaction(s)
Apr 28, 2026Tilldelning
Anders Hellberg · Annan medlem i bolagets administrations-, lednings- eller kontrollorgan
Teckningsoption · 3170.0 shares × 0.00 SEK · —
Apr 28, 2026Lösen minskning
Anders Hellberg · Annan medlem i bolagets administrations-, lednings- eller kontrollorgan
Teckningsoption · 3170.0 shares × 0.00 SEK · —
Apr 28, 2026Lösen ökning
Anders Hellberg · Annan medlem i bolagets administrations-, lednings- eller kontrollorgan
Aktie · 3170.0 shares × 1.00 SEK · —
Unfold all 11 remaining filing row(s)
| Transaction date | Published | Filer | Role | Transaction | Instrument | Price (local currency) | Quote currency | Volume | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 2026-05-04 | Helena Karlinder Östlundh | Verkställande direktör (VD) | Lösen minskning | Teckningsoption | 0.00 SEK | SEK | 3490.0 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 2026-05-04 | Helena Karlinder Östlundh | Verkställande direktör (VD) | Lösen ökning | Aktie | 1.00 SEK | SEK | 3490.0 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 2026-05-04 | Helena Karlinder Östlundh | Verkställande direktör (VD) | Tilldelning | Teckningsoption | 0.00 SEK | SEK | 3490.0 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 2026-04-29 | Madeleine Einarsson | Annan medlem i bolagets administrations-, lednings- eller kontrollorgan | Tilldelning | Teckningsoption | 0.00 SEK | SEK | 4363.0 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 2026-04-29 | Madeleine Einarsson | Annan medlem i bolagets administrations-, lednings- eller kontrollorgan | Lösen minskning | Teckningsoption | 0.00 SEK | SEK | 4363.0 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 2026-04-29 | Madeleine Einarsson | Annan medlem i bolagets administrations-, lednings- eller kontrollorgan | Lösen ökning | Aktie | 1.00 SEK | SEK | 4363.0 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 2026-04-29 | Stefan Svensson | Annan medlem i bolagets administrations-, lednings- eller kontrollorgan | Tilldelning | Teckningsoption | 0.0 SEK | SEK | 4363.0 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 2026-04-29 | Stefan Svensson | Annan medlem i bolagets administrations-, lednings- eller kontrollorgan | Lösen minskning | Teckningsoption | 0.0 SEK | SEK | 4363.0 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 2026-04-29 | Stefan Svensson | Annan medlem i bolagets administrations-, lednings- eller kontrollorgan | Lösen ökning | Aktie | 1.0 SEK | SEK | 4363.0 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 2026-04-29 | Stefan Svensson | Annan medlem i bolagets administrations-, lednings- eller kontrollorgan | Tilldelning | Aktie | 0.0 SEK | SEK | 30718.0 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 2026-04-29 | Stefan Svensson | Annan medlem i bolagets administrations-, lednings- eller kontrollorgan | Avyttring | Aktie | 39.03 SEK | SEK | 15718.0 | — |
Showing 14 of 14 matching raw-feed row(s) from the current 365-day research window. Prices and reported values remain in the filing currency and its major unit (for example, UK pence are parsed as GBP). The screen-level € aggregate is separately FX-normalised for research ranking, not a trade-date conversion.
Snapshot & identity
- Snapshot date
- 2026-10-18
- Ticker
- NELLY.ST
- ISIN
- SE0015245535
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Apparel Retail
Company logos by Parqet