| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 5Developing evidence | 100.0% (5/5) | 40.0% (2/5) | -0.4% | -0.6% | -3.3% |
| 20D | 4Small sample | 100.0% (4/4) | 50.0% (2/4) | +0.3% | +2.1% | -1.0% |
| 60D | 4Small sample | 100.0% (4/4) | 50.0% (2/4) | -1.9% | -1.1% | -6.4% |
| 120D | 4Small sample | 100.0% (4/4) | 50.0% (2/4) | -1.1% | -1.8% | -8.1% |
COMPANY RESEARCH
AVI GLOBAL TRUST PLC
AGT.L · United Kingdom · Closed-End Funds · Asset Management
INSIDER SIGNAL
Insider activity score：51.4 / 100
2 insiders · 2 purchase events · €117k net purchases
Europe #588 · United Kingdom #150
WHY THIS SIGNAL?
Score anatomy
Each bar shows the contribution to the current score; the weights and formula stay unchanged.
Cluster+10.5 / 35
How many distinct insiders bought in the cluster
Purchase size+18.9 / 25
Purchase value relative to company size and liquidity
Role+13.0 / 20
The seniority and relevance of participating insiders
Recency+5.0 / 10
How recently the purchases occurred
Conviction+10.0 / 10
How clearly buying stands out from other activity
What is holding the score back?
- ⚠ Buyer breadth is moderate · fewer than 4 distinct filers
- ⚠ Insider role contributes less on the current role scale
- ⚠ Purchase activity is becoming less recent
The role contribution uses the inverted role input of the current European model.
Buying concentration
51%
Largest buyer：SEEMA PATERSON · 50k GBP
Gross qualified purchase transaction-line value：99k GBP
The headline € total is net buying for the screen; this module uses gross qualified purchase transaction-line values in the filing currency, so the amounts can differ. The current 15-day buyer-breadth input counts distinct buyers; value concentration is disclosed separately here.
This is a ranking under the current European screening rules—not a probability of gain, return forecast, or buy recommendation.
Key purchase quotes (filing currency)
| Filer | Price per unit | Trade date |
|---|---|---|
| MR JOSEPH BAUERNFREUND | 2.5531 GBP | Oct 7, 2026 |
| SEEMA PATERSON | 2.58677 GBP | Sep 15, 2026 |
Model details
Cluster breakdown (does not change the score)
- 15-day buyer breadth (count)
- 1 distinct reported filers
- Peak time window
- 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-15
- Current breadth input
- 0.300 (capped at 4+ buyers)
- Buyer independence
- Not yet measured; related-party fields are not cross-market comparable
What the filings show
- 🟢 Recent eligible purchase
MR JOSEPH BAUERNFREUND · 49k GBP · Price 2.5531 GBP · Oct 7, 2026 - 🟢 PDMR purchase
SEEMA PATERSON · 50k GBP · Price 2.58677 GBP · Sep 15, 2026
Insider vs stock price
2 purchase day(s), 2 purchase line(s) in the 180-day window.
Daily close (GBp)Day with an insider purchase
Markers sit on the closing price of the transaction day. They show when insiders traded, not the price they paid or received. "Since" compares that day's close with the last close shown; it is what happened at this company, not a forecast.
If you had followed the purchase
Each row starts on the first close on or after the day a purchase was made public, the earliest a reader could have acted, and ends on the last close shown above.
| Made public | Insiders | In this stock, now | In the median peer stock, now | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 1 | 990 −1.0% | 1,000 +0.0% | −10 −1.0 pts |
| 2026-10-07 | 1 | 994 −0.6% | 1,000 +0.0% | −6 −0.6 pts |
0 of 2 disclosure day(s) ended ahead of the median peer stock.
Close to close, before costs, taxes, dividends and currency moves. The peer is the median of the other stocks on the same exchange for which this site holds prices (190 here), not an index. This is what happened, not a forecast: across all purchases on this site the typical gap is close to zero.
Insider timeline
2 insiders bought in the last 180 days, each once and more than 15 days apart.
Tap an item for what it means.
●A purchase: the bigger the dot, the more was bought
Each dot is one insider's purchases on one day. The dot's area follows the amount: the largest purchase here gets the largest dot. Hold the pointer over a dot to see the date and the amount.
Blue line: this share's price, −1.0% over these six months
The closing price of each day, from 256.00 on 2026-04-21 to 253.50 on 2026-10-09. The line has no scale; read it for high and low: a dot on a low stretch was bought cheaply, a dot on a high stretch was not.
Dashed line: the typical stock on the same exchange, +2.5%
Taken from the 491 other stocks on the same exchange that this site holds prices for. Each is measured from the first day of the window, and every day the middle one is drawn. It starts where the blue line starts, so the gap between the two is the difference: this share −1.0%, the typical one +2.5%, 3.5 points behind. It is not an index and not a comparison within one industry.
▂Grey bars: companies across Europe disclosing purchases each week
A taller bar is a week in which more companies disclosed insider purchases.
This company: insiders buying per month, last 12 months
2Nov
1Dec
Jan
Feb
1Mar
1Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
1Sep
1Oct
Darker bars are inside the 180-day window above.
Who traded
| Insider | Role | Purchases | Sales | Bought | First purchase | Share price since | Earlier purchases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEEMA PATERSON | Board member | 1 | — | 50.0k GBP | 2026-09-15 | −1.0% | fewer than 5 completed |
| MR JOSEPH BAUERNFREUND | Role not classified | 1 | — | 48.5k GBP | 2026-10-07 | −0.6% | fewer than 5 completed |
Why this score? · Model details
Priority = 100 × Σ(fixed weight × 0–1 rule-based input)
| Factor | Weight | This company input | Point contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15-day buyer breadth (count) | 35% | 0.300 | 10.5 |
| Qualified-buy size | 25% | 0.756 | 18.9 |
| Role informativeness (inverted) | 20% | 0.350 | 7.0 |
| Recency | 10% | 0.500 | 5.0 |
| Buy/sell conviction | 10% | 1.000 | 10.0 |
This is a heuristic ordering under the current rules, not a calibrated return forecast. It explains why candidates rank differently; the public-filing evidence and data limits are shown below.
BULL VS BEAR
Two readings of this buying
The same filings, read two ways. Each line is a fact stored for this company with the number behind it, and appears only when that number crosses a fixed threshold. Neither side is a forecast and no winner is declared.
Since 2026-10-13, neither column has changed. All bull and bear lists, and what followed each line in the past →
Where the evidence comes from
Independent evidence does not object: the purchases themselves carry bull lines (bought in the last two weeks); share price and trading, short sellers, company actions were checked and none crosses a bear threshold. No data is held for: company results.
- The insider purchases themselvesBullbought in the last two weeks Bearsmall purchases, usual level for this company4 checked, under the threshold · 3 missing
- Share price and trading2 checked, under the threshold
- Short sellers1 checked, under the threshold
- Company results1 missing
- Company actions1 checked, under the threshold
Bull case · the buying is informative
- The latest purchase is 10 days old (2026-10-07). The buying is current, not left over from an earlier quarter.
Bear case · discount it
- Net purchases of €117k are <0.01% of the company's market value (€1.2bn): a visible sum, a small one against the business.
- Buying at this level is normal here: 4 insiders bought in the previous 180 days and 2 in this one.Record: after 2,869 earlier disclosures like this, the median 60-session excess return was −2.6%, within 1 percentage point of all comparable disclosures (−2.7%).
Evidence still missing
- No buyer here has 5 or more completed earlier purchases on record, so there is no track record to weigh.
- No earnings, margin or cash-flow figures are captured for this company. The latest annual and interim reports are where to check whether the business is improving or deteriorating.
- European notifications have no field saying whether a purchase was pre-arranged; there is no counterpart to the US 10b5-1 box. None of the 2 purchase lines mentions a plan, but a bare “PURCHASE OF ORDINARY SHARES IN AVI GLOBAL TRUST PLC” does not rule one out.
- The filings give the size of each trade, not what the buyer already held. Whether a purchase added 1% to a personal stake or doubled it is not known.
Checked and under the threshold: 8
- BullAt most 1 insider bought within any 15 days. Counted for the bull side from 3.
- BearThe largest buyer accounts for 51% of the value bought. Counted for the bear side from 80%.
- Bear0 of 2 buyers filed as a person closely associated with a manager. Counted for the bear side from half.
- BearNo insider sale is recorded in the same 180 days.
- BearThe share price changed +1.6% over six months (three months +1.00%, one month −2.5%) and stands 7.1% below its 52-week high. Counted for the bear side from a fall of 20%.
- BearOver three months the share price changed +1.00% and the median of 159 Closed-End Funds companies changed +1.0%: behind by 0 points. Counted for the bear side from 20 points behind.
- BearThe register of FCA shows no published net short position in this company.
- BullThe company announced 15 transactions in its own shares in the last 30 days (latest 2026-10-16); the 7 read are all purchases. For a closed-end fund a buyback is routine: it is how the board narrows the discount to net asset value. Not counted for the bull side.
Both columns arrange stored facts only. They do not change the insider score or the ranking and are not investment advice.
Signal history
51.4 / 100
Latest recorded score
↑ +10.8 ptsversus the comparable snapshot on 2026-09-14 (34 calendar days apart)
- Recorded snapshots
- 35
- First snapshot
- 2026-08-26
Only scores captured when the scoring run completed are compared. These are raw signal scores saved when each full scoring run completed. They describe changes in research ranking, not price performance or returns.
Why did it change?
Decomposition across the five score factors between comparable snapshots; historical scores are not recalculated.
- Purchase size+1.7 pts
- Role-4.1 pts
- Recency+5.0 pts
Signal score history
Fixed 0–100 scale; dates are spaced by calendar time.
Recent recorded points
- 45.6
- 45.6
- 50.2
- 56.9
- 51.4
View all recorded scores
| Snapshot date | Signal score |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 45.6 |
| 2026-08-27 | 45.6 |
| 2026-08-28 | 45.6 |
| 2026-08-31 | 45.6 |
| 2026-09-01 | 45.6 |
| 2026-09-02 | 45.6 |
| 2026-09-03 | 45.6 |
| 2026-09-04 | 45.6 |
| 2026-09-07 | 45.6 |
| 2026-09-08 | 40.6 |
| 2026-09-09 | 40.6 |
| 2026-09-10 | 40.6 |
| 2026-09-11 | 40.6 |
| 2026-09-14 | 40.6 |
| 2026-09-23 | 51.9 |
| 2026-09-24 | 51.5 |
| 2026-09-25 | 51.1 |
| 2026-09-28 | 50.2 |
| 2026-09-29 | 49.9 |
| 2026-09-30 | 49.7 |
| 2026-10-01 | 49.5 |
| 2026-10-02 | 49.2 |
| 2026-10-03 | 49.2 |
| 2026-10-04 | 49.2 |
| 2026-10-05 | 48.7 |
| 2026-10-06 | 48.5 |
| 2026-10-07 | 56.9 |
| 2026-10-08 | 55.7 |
| 2026-10-09 | 55.1 |
| 2026-10-12 | 53.5 |
| 2026-10-13 | 53.0 |
| 2026-10-14 | 52.6 |
| 2026-10-15 | 52.2 |
| 2026-10-16 | 51.8 |
| 2026-10-18 | 51.4 |
Sector context
- Buying breadth
- 9.7% (21 / 216 issuers)
- Sector rank
- #4 / 12
- 7D breadth change
- +0.0 pp · vs 2026-10-12 (6d)
- 30D breadth change
- History building
This is sector-level research context. It does not affect the Insider Signal or ranking.
Insider profile outcomes
Historical performance following insider filings. The company role is translated below each name while preserving the original title.
- Excess return = stock return − FTSE 100 return over the same period.
- Hit rate = completed events with positive excess return ÷ total completed events.
- Price coverage = valid point-in-time prices ÷ events mature enough for that period.
- Returns start on the first shared trading session on or after publication.
- Small-sample rule: n<5 is shown for transparency and is not scored.
Events are disclosure-level observations; related disclosures published on the same date may share a return path and may not be statistically independent. This research enrichment does not affect the insider score or ranking.
| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 4Small sample | 100.0% (4/4) | 50.0% (2/4) | -0.1% | -0.9% | -3.9% |
| 20D | 4Small sample | 100.0% (4/4) | 25.0% (1/4) | -0.9% | -1.2% | -3.4% |
| 60D | 4Small sample | 100.0% (4/4) | 0.0% (0/4) | -6.1% | -5.6% | -6.9% |
| 120D | 4Small sample | 100.0% (4/4) | 25.0% (1/4) | -0.6% | -1.6% | -5.7% |
| Period | Completed events | Price coverage | Hit rate | Median excess return | Average excess return | Worst excess return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 4Small sample | 100.0% (4/4) | 25.0% (1/4) | -1.2% | -0.9% | -2.8% |
| 20D | 4Small sample | 100.0% (4/4) | 25.0% (1/4) | -2.9% | -2.9% | -6.5% |
| 60D | 4Small sample | 100.0% (4/4) | 50.0% (2/4) | +0.8% | -0.3% | -7.9% |
| 120D | 3Small sample | 100.0% (3/3) | 66.7% (2/3) | +0.5% | -0.4% | -5.6% |
Market context
PRICE PERFORMANCE
VOLATILITY & LIQUIDITY
- Volatility
- 14.9%
- Beta
- —
- Avg daily volume
- £1.8M
VALUATION
- Market cap
- £1.0B
- P/E
- 21.7×
FUNDAMENTALS
- Profit margin
- —
- ROE
- —
- Industry
- —
Prices to 09 Oct 2026: OpenBB/yfinance. From OpenBB/yfinance, captured 09 Oct 2026: Market cap, P/E. It does not affect the insider score or rank.
Disclosed net short positions
The FCA register, read 18 Oct 2026, publishes no aggregate net short position for this issuer.
Short-position disclosures are external context; they do not affect the insider score, ranking, or filing eligibility.
Insiders' buying price vs the latest close
The latest close in the price history is more than a week old.
Buying size vs market trading
Market history is too old for this snapshot; ratios are withheld.
Market-data coverage: 509 verified sessions · Latest session: 2026-10-09 · Ratio status: Unavailable
Traded value is estimated as close × shares traded, in major currency units. Includes disclosed qualifying purchases; disclosures may lag. Contractual or planned acquisitions are not necessarily discretionary. Ratios describe relative trading size, not market participation or score contributions.
Latest news
No news has been captured for this company.
Regulatory filings
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-10-07 · trade date 2026-10-07
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-09-15 · trade date 2026-09-15
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-04-10 · trade date 2026-04-10
Unfold all 6 filings
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-10-07 · trade date 2026-10-07
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-09-15 · trade date 2026-09-15
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-04-10 · trade date 2026-04-10
- Insider filing announcement · published 2026-03-11 · trade date 2026-03-11
- Insider filing announcement · published 2025-12-04 · trade date 2025-12-04
- Insider filing announcement · published 2025-11-27 · trade date 2025-11-27
Filing evidence
These are underlying national-feed records from the 365-day window ending on the saved ranking snapshot. The score uses only the latest 180 days; older qualifying equity purchases remain visible for audit but do not enter the current score. The original filer, role, transaction classification, instrument, price, volume, value and source fields are retained. The first three rows are shown; remaining records can be unfolded for audit. Other transaction types are retained but excluded from the score.
Excluded transactions & classification
8 qualifying purchase disclosure(s) · 8 transaction line(s)
Oct 7, 2026PURCHASE OF ORDINARY SHARES IN AVI GLOBAL TRUST PLC
MR JOSEPH BAUERNFREUND · PDMR/ Investment Manager
ORDINARY 2P SHARES · 19000 shares × 2.5531 GBP · —
Open filingSep 15, 2026Purchase of shares
SEEMA PATERSON · DIRECTOR
ORDINARY 2P SHARES · 19345 shares × 2.58677 GBP · —
Open filingApr 10, 2026PURCHASE OF ORDINARY SHARES IN AVI GLOBAL TRUST PLC
MR JOSEPH BAUERNFREUND · PDMR/ Investment Manager
ORDINARY 2P SHARES · 7500 shares × 2.52125 GBP · —
Open filingUnfold all 5 remaining filing row(s)
| Transaction date | Published | Filer | Role | Transaction | Instrument | Price (local currency) | Quote currency | Volume | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 2026-04-10 | MR JOSEPH BAUERNFREUND | PDMR/ Investment Manager | PURCHASE OF ORDINARY SHARES IN AVI GLOBAL TRUST PLC | ORDINARY 2P SHARES | 2.52125 GBP | GBP | 6500 | Open filing |
| 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-11 | NEIL GALLOWAY | DIRECTOR | Purchase of shares | ORDINARY 2P SHARES | 2.541511 GBP | GBP | 10000 | Open filing |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-12-04 | GRAHAM KITCHEN | DIRECTOR | Purchase of shares | ORDINARY 2P SHARES | 2.515929 GBP | GBP | 14500 | Open filing |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-11-27 | MR JOSEPH BAUERNFREUND | PDMR/ Investment Manager | PURCHASE OF ORDINARY SHARES IN AVI GLOBAL TRUST PLC | ORDINARY 2P SHARES | 2.518833 GBP | GBP | 4000 | Open filing |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-11-27 | MRS JUDITH BAUERNFREUND | PERSON CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH MR JOSEPH BAUERNFREUND, PDMR | PURCHASE OF ORDINARY SHARES IN AVI GLOBAL TRUST PLC | ORDINARY 2P SHARES | 2.518825 GBP | GBP | 7000 | Open filing |
Showing 8 of 8 matching raw-feed row(s) from the current 365-day research window. Prices and reported values remain in the filing currency and its major unit (for example, UK pence are parsed as GBP). The screen-level € aggregate is separately FX-normalised for research ranking, not a trade-date conversion.
Other disclosed transactions · excluded from score
The underlying filing feed is unavailable in this snapshot; this is not a claim that no filings exist.
Snapshot & identity
- Snapshot date
- 2026-10-18
- Ticker
- AGT.L
- ISIN
- GB00BLH3CY60
- Sector
- Closed-End Funds
- Industry
- Asset Management
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